We're set for a massive fight card from Mexico City as the UFC touches down for a fight card in Latin America. We'll be bringing you our prediction and pick for this next bout in the Lightweight (155) Division as Peru's Claudio Puelles will take on France's Fares Ziam. Check out our UFC odds series for our Puelles-Ziam prediction and pick.

Claudio Puelles (12-3) has gone 5-2 under the UFC since 2016. After winning five straight fights including his last win over legend Clay Guida, Puelles was stopped by Dan Hooker with a body kick during his last fight. It was a disappointing result for the young prospect, but he'll look to make up with a better performance in front of a home Latin crowd. He stands 5'10” with a 72-inch reach.

Fares Ziam (14-4) has gone 4-2 in the UFC since 2019. He's part of the young crop of fighters training out of France and his skills have improved noticeably. After a loss to Terrance McKinney, he bounced back with his latest win over Jai Herbert, looking for his third in a row with a win here against Puelles. He stands 6'1″ with a 75-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline. 

UFC Mexico City Odds: Claudio Puelles-Fares Ziam Odds

Claudio Puelles: +168

Fares Ziam: -193

Over 2.5 rounds: -135

Under 2.5 rounds: +105

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Why Claudio Puelles Will Win

Claudio Puelles is a very complete prospect and many were singing his praises leading up to his fight with Dan Hooker. The fight was nearly a pick'em betting line, but it soon became clear that the step-up in competition was too much, too fast for Puelles. While Ziam is a dangerous striker, him and Puelles are much closer in terms of skill and he should have a better time finding his striking rhythm in this one. He's an even bigger underdog this time around, but expect to see a much better version of Claudio Puelles after his last loss.

He struggled against Dan Hooker in finding his striking range against the long reach. The body kicks also became a problem for Puelles and he's certain to come into this fight with a better defensive game plan. Fares Ziam has a similar build to Dan Hooker, so Puelles will have to find the pockets and circled around the constant jab. If he's able to mix in his grappling, he should see success against a primary striker like Ziam.

Why Fares Ziam Will Win

Fares Ziam has a great gym behind him with head coach Henri Hooft and while his skills are still developing, he's looking sharper and sharper each time he steps into the cage. All four of his UFC wins have come by way of decision and his only two finishes were both losses. He has the power to drop opponents, but he's much more of a volume and precision striker when it comes to his Muay Thai. While he has five submission wins on the ground, he's fallen to submission three times and will want to avoid any 50/50 situations against a finisher like Puelles.

Fares Ziam can win this fight if he relies on his solid jab to create space and discourage Puelles from closing the distance. It was the same gameplan Hooker used against Puelles and as long as Ziam is able to create that space, he should have an opportunity to get his strikes off and cause some damage. He's not the biggest power puncher, so it'll take an onslaught of combinations for Ziam to get a tough Puelles out of there.

Final Claudio Puelles-Fares Ziam Prediction & Pick

This should be a very close fight stylistically as both men are very deliberate and precise with their striking. Neither fighter really has noticeable knockout power and as long as both guys are willing to bang, we should see a three-round kickboxing fight for the majority of this one. The opening betting lines are a bit wider than expected – this could be a much closer fight than the line indicates with the underdog coming in off a loss.

Claudio Puelles will have a lot to prove during this fight and fighting in front of Latin America should give him added motivation. He'll have to be much more defensively-minded this time around and not chase the early knockout. He should expect a long fight from Ziam, so closing the distance and finding his angles will be crucial in getting this win.

Ziam, on the other hand, comes in as the sizable favorite and should be the stronger fighter in the cage. If he takes a page out of Dan Hooker's book and uses his size whenever these two clinch-up, he should be able to cause some damage with his knees and elbows off the break.

Fares Ziam may be the more fundamental fighter here, but I expect the energy from Puelles to carry him far in this fight. His loss to Dan Hooker serves as a great teaching moment and he certainly has the potential to be a ranked fighter in this division. Expect him to come out much more confident this time around.

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Final Claudio Puelles-Fares Ziam Prediction & Pick: Claudio Puelles (+168)