College football bowl season continues as the New Year’s Six bowl games inch closer. This weekend, college football fans will get to see one of the service academies in action, as well as a Utah team that had College Football Playoff hopes at the beginning of the season before being hit with the injury bug.
Keep reading for my best CFP picks for this weekend’s bowl games!
All college football odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Troy at Duke
Troy: -7.5 (-104), moneyline -280
Duke: +7.5 (-118), moneyline +225
This game will be unique as both teams will be led by interim head coaches. Duke made a great pivot in hiring Manny Diaz from Penn State, but he will not be coaching the Blue Devils in this game. Duke has been hit hard by the transfer portal and they will be significant underdogs in this game due to these losses.
In contrast, Troy has only lost one player to the portal, although that player was their leading tackler. The biggest loss for Duke is undoubtedly Riley Leonard at the quarterback position. Duke is a classic middle of the road college football program, but Leonard helped elevate them to new heights.
Leonard will be replaced by a true freshman in Garyson Loftis, although he has seen a decent amount of playing time. In three games this season, he has thrown more than 200 yards passing per game and he has thrown three times as many touchdowns as interceptions.
It will certainly be an uphill battle for the Blue Devils to win this game without Leonard under center. However, the books may be punishing Duke slightly too much for that loss, and value bettors have an opportunity to be the beneficiaries here.
Troy-Duke Pick: Duke +7.5 (-118)
James Madison at Air Force
James Madison: -1.5 (-112), moneyline -125
Air Force: +1.5 (-104), moneyline +104
The James Madison Dukes and the Air Force Falcons will face off in the aptly named Lockheed Martin Armed Services Bowl. James Madison can reach 12 wins on the season if they are victorious in their first-ever bowl appearance, and Air Force can finish the season on a strong note after stumbling to the finish line with four straight losses following an 8-0 start to the season.
James Madison was hit heavily by the transfer portal, losing more than a dozen players. The portal has significantly weakened JMU’s depth in the defensive front seven and at the skill positions, and the Dukes also lost quarterback Jordan McCloud, who will transfer for the third time after throwing for more than 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2023.
Both of these teams may look very different from what fans saw in the latter stages of the regular season, albeit for different reasons. While JMU has lost key starters on both sides of the ball, Air Force may get their starting QB back. It doesn’t seem like a coincidence that their losing streak coincided with Zac Larrier’s injury, and Larrier has resumed practicing with the team and is listed as questionable for the bowl game.
At full strength, these teams are competitive and I would rank JMU as four point favorites on a neutral field. With the attrition JMU has suffered due to the portal, these teams are close to even, and if Larrier is able to suit up, it could even be argued that the Falcons deserve to be slight favorites.
Regardless, there is great value for bettors to back Air Force in this matchup.
James Madison-Air Force Pick: Air Force moneyline (+104)
Utah at Northwestern
Utah: -6.5 (-110), moneyline -240
Northwestern: +6.5 (-110), moneyline +195
Utah was expected to take a major leap forward this season, although things did not go exactly as planned. It all started before the first snap of the regular season, as starting QB Cam Rising suffered an injury and missed the entire season.
Utah has been slightly above average on both sides of the ball this season, although neither unit stands out among the nation’s best.
Attrition has hit Utah hard offensively, as several key players have either entered the transfer portal or opted out to prepare for the draft. On the defensive side of the ball, the only starter the Utes lost is defensive back JaTravis Broughton, who entered the transfer portal.
Northwestern has been better than Utah in the takeaways department, and I suspect that will be the key to this game. If Northwestern can win the turnover battle, they can come away with an upset in this matchup.
This game could go either way, and there is a lot of uncertainty on Utah’s side. In this scenario, there is too much value to ignore on Northwestern’s moneyline, so I’ll back the Wildcats to win outright.
Utah-Northwestern Pick: Northwestern moneyline (+195)
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