The Missouri Tigers (2-3) visit the Florida Gators (3-2) in an SEC conference matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Missouri-Florida prediction and pick.
Missouri is just 2-3 this season and has yet to beat a Power 5 conference team. The Tigers have played well in their losses, however, as they’re coming off tight losses to #1 Georgia and Auburn in the last two weeks. Missouri gave Georgia a huge scare last week but was eventually outlasted by the country’s top team: 26-22.
Florida has had an up-and-down start to the season. After winning a thriller over then-7th-ranked Utah to start the season, the Gators have dropped both subsequent games against ranked opponents. Granted, the Gators have kept things close (particularly in their 5-point loss to #11 Tennessee) but they’ve yet to show the consistency needed to be a serious contender in the SEC. Florida did look better last week. Against an inferior Eastern Washington team, the Gators won handily 52-17.
Here are the Missouri-Florida college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Missouri-Florida Odds
Missouri: +10.5 (-105)
Florida: -10.5 (-115)
Over: 53.5 (-110)
Under: 53.5 (-110)
Why Missouri Could Cover The Spread
Missouri has played better than expected this season as they’ve given Georgia and Auburn tight games in recent weeks. The Tigers missed a late field goal that would’ve given them the win against Auburn and squandered a 10-point 4th quarter lead against Georgia. Missouri is still looking for their first SEC conference win.
The Tigers have a balanced offensive attack led by sophomore quarterback Brady Cook. Cook has been inconsistent in his first year as a full-time starter. He’s thrown for just 997 yards in 5 games and has a shaky 5:4 touchdown to interception ratio. Cook is coming off a solid game against Georgia’s ferocious defense in which he completed 20-32 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown. Despite some up-and-down play, Cook has been at least consistent in his affinity for receiver Dominic Lovett.
Lovett has had a breakout season through five weeks for the Tigers. The former 4-star prospect has already eclipsed last season’s reception mark as he leads the SEC with 27 receptions. He also leads the SEC in receiving yards with 460 yards but he’s scored just 2 touchdowns. Lovett has been a force in recent weeks – catching at least 5 passes and accumulating 80+ yards in each of his last three games. The Tigers’ offense has tried to get the ball in his hands by whatever means necessary – evidenced by his 2 carries in last week’s loss.
Although Lovett has made headlines with his SEC-leading marks, the Tigers’ offense revolves around their two-headed monster of a backfield. Seniors Nathaniel Peat and Cody Schrader are workhorse backs for the Tigers. Peat has run 56 times for 262 yards and a touchdown, while Schrader has run 46 times for 261 yards and 3 touchdowns. The committee backfield has been excellent so far and the Tigers will need the two backs to continue their success if they want to cover on Saturday. Their ability to move the chains is something to keep in mind when making a Missouri-Florida prediction.
Why Florida Could Cover The Spread
Florida is one of the most polarizing teams in the country and is led by one of the most polarizing players in the country. Quarterback Anthony Richardson oozes with potential but has struggled to take care of the ball in his young career. He’s completed just 56% of his passes this season and has thrown 6 interceptions. Richardson’s polarity can be demonstrated in his performances during the Gators’ two losses.
In their week two loss to Kentucky, Richardson was abyssal. He completed just 14 of 35 passes, did not throw a touchdown, but instead tossed two interceptions. The typically dual-threat quarterback had 6 carries for just 4 yards. Despite his poor play, the Gators lost by just 10 points.
Fast forward to their week four loss to Tennessee and you can see why fans and betters alike get excited about Richardson. Despite losing 38-33, Richardson completed 24-44 passes for 453 yards and 2 touchdowns. He threw an interception, sure, but made up for it with his legs. The 6,4″, the 230-pound quarterback ran 17 teams for 62 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s shown the ability to carry Florida in big games and certainly has the talent to do so. However, he’s also shown the ability to completely fall apart. His performance on Saturday will largely determine whether or not Florida is able to cover the spread.
Final Missouri-Florida Prediction & Pick
Missouri has played well enough in recent weeks that it’s hard to see them not covering a 10.5-point line. However, Florida has Anthony Richardson. I’m a gambling man, but even I wouldn’t bet on which version of Richardson shows up Saturday. What I will bet on, though, is the over. Both offenses have looked good in recent weeks and if Richardson is on his A-game this should clear with ease.
Final Missouri-Florida Prediction & Pick: Over 54.5 (-105)