The UAB Blazers will take on the BYU Cougars in the Independence Bowl on Saturday. It's time to continue our college football odds series and make a UAB-BYU prediction and pick.
Both of these teams had surprisingly good seasons. Expectations were on the ground for UAB entering the season, but they quickly labeled themselves as a solid team in the Conference USA. Quality wins against the UTEP Miners and the Tulane Green Wave helped solidify their status as a legitimately decent team. BYU had one of the best seasons the program has had in years, finishing as the 12th-ranked team in the nation. A win over the University of Utah aged wonderfully, along with a win over the always-vaunted USC Trojans. It'll be interesting to see how these teams stack up against each other, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the UAB-BYU odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: UAB-BYU Odds
UAB Blazers: +6.5 (-105)
BYU Cougars: -6.5 (-115)
Over: 55 (-110)
Under: 55 (-110)
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Why UAB Could Cover the Spread
The Cougars have made most of their money on offense by running the football. That's great news for UAB because the Blazers have been one of the best run defenses in the nation. They only allow three yards per carry to opposing running backs while also only giving up 158 rushing yards per game. The Blazers have a good shot at putting a stop to BYU's run game, which could change the game entirely.
BYU's rushing defense hasn't been quite as good as UAB's, another factor that should change this game. The Blazers rely on the run pretty heavily, as 61% of their offensive plays are on the ground. The Cougars allow 4.4 yards per carry to opposing backs, one of the more mediocre numbers in the nation. The Blazers should be able to control the ball and time of possession in this one.
Why BYU Could Cover the Spread
While the Blazers have put up good numbers against the run, they haven't faced a team on BYU's level all season long. UAB did face the Georgia Bulldogs, but Georgia only ran the ball a handful of times in what turned into a blowout. It's hard to see the Blazers capably defending BYU's run game well, as they just don't have any experience against an opponent of this caliber.
Because of their one-dimensional nature on offense, the Blazers have tons of trouble playing against capable defenses. The last time they played decent defense in the Liberty Flames, UAB was held to a mere 12 points. Now they face a BYU unit that has been going up against quality PAC-12 opponents all season long. The Cougars only allow 5.7 yards per play and 25 points per game to their opponents, making this the second-hardest defensive matchup the Blazers have encountered this season. Expect BYU to dominate the line of scrimmage and control the game with some quality defense throughout.
Final UAB-BYU Prediction & Pick
There's just too much unknown surrounding UAB. They haven't faced a truly good opponent since Georgia in Week 2, and that game ended in a slaughter. Take the Cougars to cover here with confidence, as they're the more talented, more experienced team.
Final UAB-BYU Prediction & pick: BYU Cougars: -6.5 (-115)
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