The UCF Knights take on the South Florida Bulls. Check out our college football odds series for our UCF South Florida prediction and pick.
The UCF Knights have lost to Louisville and Navy at home and have been demolished in a rout by SMU. The Knights also defeated Cincinnati and Tulane. They are erratic, but when they are good, they are very good. The fact that they beat both Cincinnati and Tulane has given them leverage in the AAC race. They won't host the AAC Championship Game — that's what Tulane will do next week after Tulane beat Cincinnati on Friday afternoon — but they will get a rematch with Tulane if they beat South Florida. UCF won the AAC championship in 2017 and 2018, but then Memphis and Cincinnati rose to the top of the AAC. Now UCF has a chance to take the title back from its foremost competitors. Coach Gus Malzahn lost to UCF in the 2018 Peach Bowl when he was head coach of the Auburn Tigers. Now Malzahn has a chance to coach his way into a conference championship game, which would give UCF the opportunity to go to the Cotton Bowl.
UCF's opponent is starting over. South Florida fired head coach Jeff Scott earlier this season. Scott was previously on Dabo Swinney's staff at Clemson. One wonders if Scott will rejoin Dabo in the coming offseason. Scott simply could not turn around the Bulls, who have languished in mediocrity and have plainly failed to make use of their home base in Tampa, which is a source of considerable high school football talent. Of course USF won't get the pick of the crop, but it should get the players the bigger schools choose not to recruit. USF frankly should not be this bad, but it is, and as a result, the Bulls have to hit the reset button and hire the right coach for the program.
Here are the UCF-South Florida NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: UCF-South Florida Odds
UCF Knights: -19.5 (-110)
South Florida Bulls: +19.5 (-110)
Over: 68.5 (-110)
Under: 68.5 (-110)
Why UCF Could Cover the Spread
If UCF is able to play anywhere near its best, it should be able to hammer USF, which is playing out the string this season and is waiting for a new head coach. UCF, having won at Tulane and having beaten Cincinnati, has shown that it can not only compete with, but outfox, the other top teams in the AAC this season. As long as the Knights aren't complacent or unfocused, they should be able to pummel the Bulls and punch their ticket to the AAC Championship Game in convincing fashion.
Why South Florida Could Cover the Spread
The UCF-USF rivalry is a spirited one. It might sound cliche or overdone, but in rivalry games, the records often don't matter. It's a neighborhood battle and everyone's emotions are brought to the boiling point. Crazy things can and do happen. USF might not be a good team, but it would love to ruin UCF's season. That could lead to at least one competitive half, maybe even three competitive quarters, to the extent that the Bulls can cover the spread of nearly 20 points.
Final UCF-South Florida Prediction & Pick
You should definitely stay away from this game, because it does get very heated and USF might be able to play one really good half. UCF is easily the better team, but USF could put up a fight. It's really hard to tell, which is why you should pass and look for something else.
Final UCF-South Florida Prediction & Pick: South Florida +19.5
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