Monday night's College Football Playoff national championship between Michigan and Washington was the last game of the four-team format, as next year it becomes a 12-team field. This will be yet another dynamic change to the sport that is changing seemingly by the day.
Some are welcoming it with open arms, while others are throwing disdain. Either way, the 2024 season is already on everyone's minds.
Since the inception of the playoff back in 2014, there have been 15 different teams that have made the final four, with Alabama making the most appearances at eight, who have likewise won the final game the most at three. With now eight more teams making the field, it's unlikely a team like Alabama, at least as long as Nick Saban is there, won't make it as one of the 12 teams. But the question is now, who will make it that, in previous years, had no shot of making the top four?
With a little less than a year to contemplate, we make our early projections for all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff.
1. Texas
If Quinn Ewers indeed returns for another season, that definitely bodes well for Texas football. However, Texas will be losing receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell to the draft along with some of their defensive front, which is concerning.
But if Steve Sarkisian can nail some good transfer portal additions, the Longhorns will be right back in the thick of things. Perhaps the most concerning part is their new SEC schedule.
2. Georgia
The Bulldogs are never without talent, and that will be the case again in 2024. Missing out on winning their third-consecutive national title, Kirby Smart's Bulldogs will be eager to return back to the elite of the College Football Playoff.
Carson Beck returns, who quietly had a great season. Georgia football won't have to worry about being out of the top four next season if they were to lose the SEC Championship.
3. Oregon
The Ducks bring a lot back next season and then some with the addition of Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel. Like Texas, though, they'll be entering a new conference full of competition. Good thing they saw their fair share of tough competitors in the last season of the Pac-12 in 2023.
4. Alabama
How can Alabama not be in the top four, right? At least next year, there may not be as much controversy with their ranking as eight more teams behind them will be viable to play as well. The question for the Crimson Tide next season will be how much they are improved on the offensive line and at wide receiver, as that was a definite weakness in 2023.
5. LSU
No Jayden Daniels next season, but Garrett Nussmeier looks to be a good transition. The question for LSU will be how well their defense has improved, especially after head coach Brian Kelly canned basically that whole side of the staff recently.
6. Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame had their moments in 2023, coming just shy of beating the Buckeyes. The Fighting Irish are bringing in yet another former ACC quarterback in Duke transfer Riley Leonard.
Remember, the 2024 season will only be Freeman's third year as a head coach. Perhaps he's learned a lot, and it will show in 2024.
7. Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin and the Rebels have been working the transfer portal like no other during this cycle, ranking No. 1, according to 247Sports. Kiffin had his best season as a head coach in 2023, getting Ole Miss to their first 11-win season.
They should be good again in 2024. But will Kiffin get that much-needed signature SEC win he's been looking for?
8. Penn State
A Big Ten original finally makes their way into the rankings. With Michigan losing a ton to the NFL Draft and Ryan Day struggling to determine just what kind of team Ohio State is, could next season be the year where the Nittany Lions take the next step? Michigan won't be on the schedule, but Ohio State, Washington, USC, UCLA, and Wisconsin will be.
9. Oklahoma
If Jackson Arnold can be the quarterback for the Sooners that they are hoping he can be, then it could be a promising first year in the SEC for Oklahoma football. Arnold showed flashes during the Alamo Bowl against Arizona, but too many turnovers by the young quarterback cost them the game. Clean that up, and the Sooners are playoff-bound.
10. Arizona
The Wildcats made enormous strides in 2023, and next year, they could be the kings of the Big 12. They'll have a potential Heisman Trophy candidate in true sophomore quarterback Noah Fifita back to help possibly lead them to their first Big 12 title.
11. Ohio State
The Buckeyes make it into the playoff but just barely. At this juncture, it's tough to say where this Ohio State football program is headed under Ryan Day. They basically just did an even swap at the quarterback position with the new transfer addition of Will Howard to replace Kyle McCord.
12. Kansas
The once laughingstock of college football, Kansas football is now back to winning ways thanks to head coach Lance Leipold, who got the Jayhawks to nine wins in 2023. Before Leipold got there in 2021, you'd have to add up Kansas' last five seasons prior to make up nine wins. With Oklahoma and Texas gone, and the return of Jalon Daniels at quarterback, Kansas can be one of the best teams in the Big 12 next season, making the College Football Playoff in the process.
SEC dominates, while ACC gets left out again
Go ahead now and start with the SEC bias, but that's where next year becomes very interesting. With two specifically loaded conferences in the Big Ten and SEC, they are likely to make up a majority of the playoff field. With the way these projections are set, this would mean the ACC once again gets left out of the playoff.
Florida State is losing a lot from a team that was built a majority through the transfer portal. Conversely, Clemson is now untrustworthy due to their lack of use with the portal. If I were to make the rest of the Top 25, the Tigers would probably be at 13, which therein lies the controversy.
But what about this year's final two? National Champions Michigan and runner-up Washington are set to look vastly different next season. They could still find themselves in the Top 25 but maybe not good enough for the top 12.
Like most formats before it, this will not be a perfect compromise by any stretch of the imagination. There will still likely be snubs, just on a smaller scale.
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