We have you covered with our NFL odds series with a Commanders–Cowboys prediction and pick.

In one of the bigger upsets of week 11, the Washington Commanders enter this game coming off of one of their worst losses of the season. Facing the New York Giants, who were on their third-string quarterback, the Commanders allowed them to score 31 points to go on and win by 12 points. Although the offense only scored 19 points, the Commanders saw a pretty productive performance from Brian Robinson Jr., who ran for 73 yards and had an additional 58 yards receiving. This game marked the Commanders' fourth loss in the last five games. With this being their first matchup of the year against the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys, the Commanders will aim to make a statement on the road in Arlington.

As expected, the Dallas Cowboys cruised to an easy win in week 11. On the road in Charlotte, matched up against the Carolina Panthers, the Cowboys led from wire to wire and did not give the Panthers any room to breathe. Dallas saw a highly efficient performance from Dak Prescott as he went 25-38 for 189 yards and two touchdowns. The defense even got in on the scoring as DaRon Bland had a thirty-yard pick-six to begin the fourth quarter. This brand of complimentary football will be out on full display for Cowboys fans as this team will return home to play their annual Thanksgiving Day game against the Washington Commanders.

Here are the Commanders-Cowboys NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Commanders-Cowboys Odds

Washington Commanders: +12.5 (-110)

Dallas Cowboys: -12.5 (-110)

Over: 48.5 (-110)

Under: 48.5 (-110)

How to Watch Commanders vs. Cowboys Week 12

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT

TV: CBS

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread

The Commanders entered this season with more questions than answers at the quarterback position. However, Sam Howell appears to have put those questions to rest. He has had four games where he has thrown for 300+ yards, and he has thrown for 310+ yards in three of his last four games. This tear he has been on has the Commanders ranked second in the NFL in most total passing yards at 3,038. Additionally, the Commanders are in the top 12 in the league in completion percentage and touchdowns thrown. Howell has been unreal all season long as the starter in Washington, and if he can continue this hot streak, the Cowboys could be on upset alert.

Not only do the Commanders have one of the better passing attacks in the league, but they also have an underrated run game. Led by Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson, Washington has been very efficient on the ground. Unfortunately, since they have not been in many positions to run the ball since they have trailed in most games, they have not had the chance to lean on this attack. On the third-fewest total rushing attempts in the league, the Commanders are tied for the fourth-highest yards per carry at 4.6. If the Commanders start with a run-heavy attack and then lean on Howell for explosive plays to push them downfield, Washington will have the perfect attack to outscore the Cowboys.

Why The Cowboys Could Cover The Spread

Ever since the Dallas Cowboys started the tradition of hosting a Thanksgiving Day game, they have consistently rolled over their opponents. Coming into this game, the Cowboys hold a 32-22-1 record in these games. Moreover, Dallas has looked like the best team in the NFL when they have been at home this season. The Cowboys are currently undefeated at home with a 4-0 record and have had an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Dallas has steamrolled through every team that has traveled to Arlington, and they are on track to do the same against a disheveled Commanders group.

It has been no secret that across the last six weeks, CeeDee Lamb has arguably been the wide receiver in the league. In these six games, on 9.4 receptions per game, Lamb averaged 131.0 yards and scored five touchdowns. He has been on another level and will be pinned against a lackluster Commanders secondary in this game. Although rookie Emmanuel Forbes has had a great rookie season, the rest of this unit has been mediocre at best. Washington is allowing the fifth most yards per pass attempt, the second most total passing yards, and the most passing touchdowns in the league. It is also tough to imagine that they won't be exposed in this game against a red-hot Lamb and Prescott combo.

Final Commanders-Cowboys Prediction & Pick

Thursday's game between these two marks the third time since 2016 that they have been squared up against each other on Thanksgiving Day. While the Cowboys have gone 2-1 in this span, they experienced one of the worst Thanksgiving losses in franchise history in their most recent match-up in 2020. I expect Dallas to get their long-awaited revenge for that game in this contest. Dallas is head and shoulders above Washington regarding talent and appears to be hitting their midseason stride as they enter this game on a two-game winning streak. The average margin of victory for them has been 27.5 points in this span, and it has been on the shoulders of their much-improved passing game and stout defense. Expect the defense to hold its ground and the offense to expose a weak pass defense. Give me the Cowboys -10.5.

Final Commanders-Cowboys Prediction & Pick: Dallas Cowboys -12.5 (-110)