Breaking the Thanksgiving curse against a projectable playoff team was a big hurdle for the Dallas Cowboys. Now they kick off the weakest stretch of their schedule with a road date against the 4-7-1 Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football, and it’s time to make some Week 13 Cowboys predictions.

The Colts are an enigma this year. They currently own the biggest upset in the league this year after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3. In the last two weeks, Indy flirted with a massive upset of the Philadelphia Eagles before making Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers look like a playoff team. Sunday is a game the Cowboys should win handily, but there are a number of ways things could go sideways for Dallas on Sunday.

Here are some Week 13 Cowboys predictions for when the Colts visit Jerry World.

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3. Jeff Saturday will try to out-slug the Cowboys

This is not a Colts team that thrives in a shootout. Averaging 15.8 points per game this year, Indianapolis won’t be able to hang with the Cowboys’ offense if Sunday evening turns into a track meet. The only way the Colts stand a chance is by forcing Dallas to run, stopping them from doing so, and running the ball themselves.

Against a superior offense in Week 11, the Eagles got sucked into that exact kind of game script. Philadelphia struggled in a 17-16 win over the Colts because Jeff Saturday and his coaching staff forced the Eagles to play Indianapolis’ game. Jalen Hurts only attempted 25 passes against the Colts, a tie for his lowest mark of the season. Meanwhile, the Eagles ran the ball 31 times.

Indianapolis forced the Eagles into the kind of game they will need to play if they want to beat the Cowboys. Look for Jeff Saturday to play a deep secondary and try to force the Cowboys to be run-dependent Sunday night.

2. Jonathan Taylor’s biggest threat comes as a receiver

Dallas’ defense is very pursuit-driven up front. The players pin their ears back and rally to the football. That is the brand of football that Dan Quinn wants to play. It is a winning brand for the most part, but it isn’t perfect. While the Cowboys are in such relentless pursuit of the football, they tend to open themselves up to running backs used as receivers out of the backfield.

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Saquon Barkley had five targets on Thanksgiving and caught four of them. Those touches didn’t translate into big yardages, but only Darius Slayton and Richie James Jr. had more targets in that game. The Colts should be looking for any way to get the ball to Jonathan Taylor in space, and dribbling him out of the backfield for screen plays is a good way to do that. Taylor isn’t what you would call a receiving back, but he averaged 9 yards per catch for 360 total receiving yards last season. He is a threat every time he touches the ball, but the opportunities the Cowboys’ defense allows running backs in the passing game makes him even more dangerous.

1. Dak Prescott leans on CeeDee Lamb

The Dallas Cowboys are the No. 1 offense in football since Dak Prescott returned from injury. The primary benefactor of his return inside Dallas’ offense has been CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 7, Prescott has completed 31 out of 43 attempts to Lamb for 448 yards and three touchdowns.

The Colts’ defense is not one that has been allowing quarterbacks to throw all over them. Indianapolis has only allowed 190.6 passing yards per game so far this season. That is the fifth-best mark in the league, better than Tampa Bay, New England, and San Francisco. Sunday night doesn’t figure to be one of those games where Prescott is slinging the ball around to a bunch of different receivers like he did in Minnesota or on Thanksgiving. Against a stingy group like the Colts’ secondary, Dak will need to lean on his best receiver. If Lamb doesn’t have a big game in Week 13, it’s possible none of the Cowboys’ receivers do.