After cruising through the Wild Card Series and the NLDS, the Arizona Diamondbacks find themselves in an 0-2 hole in the NLCS after dropping the first two games to the Philadelphia Phillies. The good news for the Diamondbacks is that the next three games are at home in Arizona, so if there was ever a time and place for them to mount a comeback it's this weekend.
The Diamondbacks weren't supposed to be here. They barely made the playoffs and then had to get through two division winners, one of them being the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers, to play for a spot in the World Series. 84-win teams don’t make it this far. Yet the D-backs were riding a similar wave that the Phillies were last season en route to a pennant win before getting stifled by that same Philadelphia squad.
The Phillies seem more dangerous and hungry now than ever, which only adds to the difficulty of a potential Diamondbacks comeback. Arizona's struggles as a team have been amplified by a few pinpoint things holding the D-backs from making a World Series push.
Of the 89 teams in MLB history that were down 2-0 in a best-of-seven series, 14 of them came back to win the series. If the Diamondbacks can clean these things up, they could create a path toward a comeback.
Corbin Carroll hesitant on the base paths
Corbin Carroll is the runaway favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year and rightfully so. The 23-year-old outfielder stole 54 bases, hit 30 doubles and slugged 25 homers while scoring 116 runs in his first full season in the big leagues. The Diamondbacks rewarded him with an eight-year, $111 million deal before the season and he delivered, missing just seven games in the regular season.
Carroll continued to swing a hot stick in the early portions of the MLB playoffs, going 7-for-14 with a double, two home runs, four RBIs and six runs scored in his first four postseason games. Arizona won all four games and completed a sweep of the Dodgers in their first and so far only playoff game at home this October.
Part of what makes Carroll such a dynamic player is his speed, yet he's been unable to utilize it in this series. Granted, he's only been in base twice in the two games as he's struggling to hit Phillies pitching, but it's not far-fetched to expect him to attempt a steal every time he has a base open in front of him. Considering the Diamondbacks were underdogs entering the series, they should take every advantage they can get.
Arizona needs Corbin Carroll to start getting on base more and take off when he does. The Diamondbacks had only four at-bats with runners in scoring position in the first two games and have yet to attempt a stolen base. That needs to change as the series sways to the desert and Carroll has to be the one to get things moving in the right direction.
Bullpen move backfires
The Diamondbacks were banking their hopes of winning a game in Philadelphia on one of their two aces, Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly. Fast forward past the two games, the duo allowed a combined nine runs and surrendered 11 hits as the Phillies teed off and put Arizona on the back foot from the jump in both games.
Still, the D-backs bullpen entered the series riding high off a spectacular September and allowed four runs in five playoff games leading into the NLCS, good enough for a 1.77 ERA. Arizona relievers had a 2.31 ERA in September, the third-best mark in the MLB.
In Game 2, D-backs manager Torey Lovullo decided to let Kelly ride out the sixth inning after he allowed just two hits (both solo home runs) across five innings. Another solo homer by Kyle Schwarber to lead off the sixth gave Kelly a shorter leash, but he stuck in and retired back-to-back hitters after walking Trea Turner.
With lefty Bryson Stott coming up, this is when Lovullo decided to pull Kelly to bring in a lefty of his own, Joe Mantiply. Kelly was at 89 pitches and did well minus a couple of mistakes, but his manager had seen enough.
The move did not work out for Arizona, as Mantiply allowed three consecutive hits and three more runs scored to break the game open at 6-0. Had the D-backs stuck with Merrill Kelly for one more batter, perhaps they could have left the inning with a three-run deficit and put themselves in a better position to mount a comeback.
It's all hindsight though and wouldn’t have helped anyway if the Diamondbacks lineup continued to be stymied.
D-backs top of the order goes quiet
It's hard to win baseball games, especially in the playoffs, when a team doesn’t score runs. The Diamondbacks scored three runs in the first 18 innings of this series and have yet to hold a lead. The entire offense is struggling, but the top of the lineup is where the problem needs to be fixed.
The top four batters in Arizona's order – Corbin Caroll, Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham and Christian Walker – went 5-for-30 with one run scored in the first two games. That foursome mustered up three hits against Phillies starters Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and were even less successful against Philadelphia's bullpen.
The Diamondbacks offense goes as they go. It's hard for any team to be successful when its top four hitters are underperforming, and Arizona is no exception. Perhaps hitting in front of a jubilant and alive Chase Field crowd will spark some of these bats, but it could be too little too late for the D-backs.
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