Who's afraid of the Miami Dolphins? If we asked that question back in Week 12, we would probably have quite a few teams saying “yes.” Not now, though. The Dolphins have lost their last five games. They have gone from a near-sure-thing in the AFC playoffs to being on the brink of being eliminated from postseason contention. They need two things to happen in Week 18 to make it to the playoffs. First, Miami must beat the New York Jets at home. Next, Miami needs the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots. The second thing is likely, but the first thing is well, pretty much a 50-50 thing. Now let's look at our Dolphins Week 18 predictions as they take on the Jets.
The 8-8 Dolphins, potentially without their top two QBs, will try to keep their playoff hopes alive against the 7-9 Jets. A five-game losing streak and another concussion for Tua Tagovailoa have complicated the situation for the Dolphins despite looking like a sure-fire wild-card team a month ago. Teddy Bridgewater (finger) is trending towards missing Sunday's matchup, setting Skylar Thompson up to likely make his second career start.
The Jets' 23-6 loss to Seattle in Week 17 ended their hopes of ending their 11-year playoff drought. However, they can still play spoiler with a road win to gain confidence heading into the offseason.
With all these in mind, here are our four bold predictions for the Dolphins in their Week 18 game against the Jets.
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4. Miami struggles against the Jets ground game
In the Jets' win against the Dolphins in Week 5, Breece Hall had a strong performance on the ground (97 rushing yards, one TD). That made things easier for Zach Wilson and the offense. However, the Jets have missed Hall's explosiveness in the backfield and have not rushed for more than 80 yards in four straight games. Rookie fill-in Zonovan Knight has not been as successful as he was when he first received a larger workload.
Last week, the Jets gave Ty Johnson a bigger role and he ran for 46 yards on 5.8 yards per carry. The Jets had to abandon the run when they were trailing by multiple scores. Still, if they are able to stay competitive, Johnson is expected to have a decent rushing performance despite facing a challenging Dolphins run defense. That's what we actually expect to happen here. The Jets will lean on their ground game as the Dolphins D struggles to slow them down.
3. Dolphins rushers make their mark
On the other end of the field, the Dolphins have a solid running back duo of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. They have both had impressive moments throughout the season but have not been consistent. Mostert is averaging 4.8 yards per run, and Wilson is averaging 4.7 yards per run. Salvon Ahmed also contributes with an average of 5.2 yards per carry when he gets playing time.
It is important for the Dolphins to rely on their running game, extend drives, give their injury-ridden defense more rest, and make things easier for Thompson. We feel that without their top two QBs, the Dolphins have little choice but to turn to their RB corps to carry the load. We believe Mostert and Wilson should combine for more than 110 yards and at least one touchdown here.
2. Skylar Thompson starts and plays better this time
The Dolphins have been hit hard by injuries, particularly at quarterback. Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol for the third time this season and Bridgewater injured his pinky on his throwing hand in Week 17. This means that Skylar Thompson is likely to be the starting quarterback for the Dolphins in a crucial game against the Jets' strong defense. Thompson needs to show that he can defeat defenses with his arm.
In his first career start after Bridgewater's injury last week, Thompson had just 104 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Even those numbers were boosted by a touchdown drive against soft coverage in garbage time. That said, the Jets' pass defense has allowed the sixth-lowest drop-back EPA so it may be difficult for Thompson to move the ball through the air. However, he has the advantage of talented receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. That means quick passes to them could be effective. We don't have high expectations, but Thompson should do better than 104 yards, right?
1. Dolphins drown in their shallows and miseries
The Dolphins have given up 27 touchdowns through the air and an average of 240.1 yards per game. That ranks them 27th among all teams. They have also allowed 1,714 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Miami also has a total of 14 turnovers on the season. And now without their QB1 and QB2, their offense might struggle even more.
Should Thompson start as we expect, the Jets' pass rush is expected to disrupt him and cause turnovers that give the Jets a good starting field position. This means the Jets will end their five-game losing streak and eliminate the Dolphins' playoff hopes in the process.
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