The Illinois Fighting Illini are hoping for a reset when the brackets come out Sunday evening and head coach Brad Underwood and his players learn the path they will have to follow if they want to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Their goal, of course, is to make it to the Final Four.
While skeptics may look at that assessment and either laugh or turn up their noses, Illinois (24-8, 15-5 in the Big Ten) appeared to be on its way to a possible top seed in the tournament in early February. The Fighting Illini was riding a 12-game winning streak and had a 20-3 record when they suffered an 85-82 overtime loss to Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans in early February.
Underwood's team was never the same after that loss. Illinois has been unable to find its rhythm since then, as they go into the NCAA Tournament having lost 5 of their last 9 games.
That included a 91-88 defeat to Wisconsin — once again in overtime — in the Big Ten tournament. However, Illinois is a talented and deep team that has a chance to erase that end-of-season slump by getting its act together. It would be a mistake to write off Illinois with the tournament at hand.
Illinois looks like a No. 3 seed
Even with the rough finish to the regular season and the Friday loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten tournament, the Illini are not likely to slip below a No. 3 seed. There is an outside chance they could still get a No. 2 seed, but a No. 3 seed is more likely.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi has the Illini as the third seed in the East region, and that would mean a battle against No. 1 seed Duke if Underwood can take his players to the regional final. Beating the Blue Devils would seem out of reach for Illinois, but there's no reason to get that far ahead at this point.
Illinois would possibly play 14th-seeded Wright State in the first round, and that is clearly a dangerous team but one that the Illini should be able to handle without too much trouble.
Wright State goes into the tournament as the Horizon League champions, having beaten Detroit Mercy 66-60 in the championship game. The Raiders go into the tournament with a 23-11 record after finishing 15-5 in the conference.
Wright State is led by a pair of guards in Michael Cooper and TJ Burch. Cooper averages 13.4 points and shoots 36.4 percent from beyond the arc, while Burch was right behind with a 12.3 ppg mark and he was also very active on defense with an eye-opening 2.5 steals per game. The Raiders could also get a lift from Michael Imariagbe, as he demonstrated the ability to score (11.8 ppg) and rebound (7.0 rpg).
The biggest worry against Wright State is that the Raiders get off to a good start, the Illini has to play from behind and the tension increases as the game goes along. Despite Burch's ability to come up with steals, that is not likely because Illinois has a huge advantage in talent and athleticism.
Start with guard Keaton Wagler, the team's leading scorer with a 17.9 ppg mark. While he is competing with a sore back, he can hit from long distance. Wagler is connecting on 40.2 percent of his shots from behind the arc. Fellow guard Andrej Stojakovic is averaging 13.4 point and connecting on 49.1 percent of his shots from the field.
Those two should lead the way with help from David Mirkovic, Kylan Boswell and big men Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic.
Possible rematch with Missouri in second round
Things will get interesting in the second round for the Illini. They will face the winner of the 6-11 game that could feature No. 6 seed Louisville and 11th seeded Missouri.
The Cardinals would likely be favored in their first-round game, but Missouri is a dangerous team that could find a way to register the upset. Illinois and Missouri are hated rivals, as they play in their “Braggin' Rights” game every year.
The fact that Illinois won the meeting in late December by the biggest margin in the history of the matchup is not necessarily good news for Underwood's team. Illinois overwhelmed Missouri by a 91-48 margin, and the Tigers remember that game very well.
They would like nothing better than to register a revenge upset. The Tigers come into the tournament with a 20-12 record and finished 10-8 in the Big 12.
They are led by high-scoring guard Mark Mitchell, who leads the team with an average of 18.3 points per game while shooting 55.1 percent from the field. Jayden Stone supports Mitchell with a 13.2 ppg mark and he shoots 38.2 percent from beyond the arc.
Underwood's team would have to battle overconfidence against a team they defeated by 43 points. If the Illini earn a No. 3 seed and face Wright State and Missouri in the first two rounds, that would be an ideal scenario for this team that has struggled down the stretch.
