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The NBA season comes to an end, but the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament is just starting, and we have a tilt between the Dallas Mavericks and the Memphis Grizzlies battling for their spot in the playoffs on Friday. It's time to continue our NBA Play-In odds series with a Mavericks-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies square off Friday night in a high-stakes play-in tournament battle for the West’s final playoff spot. Dallas enters with momentum after a convincing 120-106 win over Sacramento, powered by Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson’s strong performances. However, Memphis owns the season series, winning three of four meetings, including a dominant 132-97 victory in their most recent clash. The Grizzlies’ balanced attack, led by Desmond Bane, and their superior defense and rebounding give them a statistical edge. Expect a physical, fast-paced contest as both teams fight to secure a postseason berth.
Here are the Mavericks-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Play-In Odds: Mavericks-Grizzlies Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +6 (-106)
Moneyline: +210
Memphis Grizzlies: -6 (-114)
Moneyline: -255
Over: 221.5 (-106)
Under: 221.5 (-114)
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Grizzlies NBA Play-In 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT
TV: TNT
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Why the Mavericks Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Dallas Mavericks are in a strong position to win or cover the spread against the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday, thanks to their newfound defensive identity and the emergence of key role players. Despite the absence of Luka Doncic, Dallas showcased its depth and resilience in a convincing 120-106 play-in victory over Sacramento. Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points and 9 rebounds, while Klay Thompson and Brandon Williams provided crucial scoring bursts, particularly from beyond the arc. The Mavericks’ imposing frontcourt trio of Davis, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford has become a defensive force, altering shots and dominating the paint. Their ability to block shots and force turnovers was evident against the Kings, and this interior presence will be critical against Memphis, especially with Ja Morant’s tendency to attack the rim.
Additionally, Dallas’ supporting cast has stepped up at the right time. P.J. Washington’s versatility, Thompson’s perimeter shooting, and Williams’ efficient play off the bench give the Mavericks multiple scoring options beyond their stars. While Memphis boasts a strong, balanced offense and solid rebounding, Dallas matches up well with their own size and defensive intensity. If the Mavericks can replicate their hot shooting stretches—like their second-quarter outburst against Sacramento—and maintain their defensive pressure, they have every reason to believe they can win outright or at least cover a narrow spread. Their recent form and tactical adjustments make them a legitimate threat in this high-stakes play-in clash.
Why the Grizzlies Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Memphis Grizzlies are well-positioned to win and cover the spread against the Dallas Mavericks on Friday, thanks to their superior depth, home-court advantage, and defensive prowess. Memphis finished the regular season with a strong 22-19 home record and boasts a 48-34 overall mark, compared to Dallas’s 17-25 road record and 39-43 overall. The Grizzlies have already demonstrated their ability to handle Dallas, most recently dominating them 132-97 in the regular season finale, even with key starters resting. With Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Bane back in the lineup, Memphis’s elite defense and points-in-the-paint scoring should be even more impactful.
Morant's status for Friday night is uncertain as he left the last game due to an ankle injury.
Memphis’s depth allows them to maintain high energy and defensive intensity throughout the game, often overwhelming opposing second units. Their ability to protect the rim and generate turnovers will challenge a Mavericks squad that, without Luka, relies heavily on Anthony Davis and role players to create offense. The Grizzlies enter as 6.5-point favorites for good reason, with betting markets and analytics giving them a strong win probability in this matchup. Expect Memphis to leverage their home crowd, balanced scoring, and stifling defense to secure the win and cover the spread, punching their ticket to face Oklahoma City in the first round.
Final Mavericks-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
The Memphis Grizzlies are favored to win and cover the 6-point spread against the Dallas Mavericks in Friday’s play-in tournament game. Memphis holds a stronger home record (22-19) compared to Dallas’s poor road mark (17-25), and they dominated the most recent matchup with a commanding 132-97 victory over Dallas. The Grizzlies’ balanced attack, led by Bane and Morant, combined with their defensive intensity, gives them a clear edge. Meanwhile, Dallas, despite a strong win over Sacramento, remains shorthanded and less consistent. With Memphis favored at -255 on the moneyline and playing at FedExForum, expect the Grizzlies to control the game, secure the win, and comfortably cover the spread to clinch the No. 8 seed in the West.
Final Mavericks-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6 (-114),
