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After a playoff birth in 2023, the Miami Marlins took a massive step back in 2024 as they look forward to putting a more competitive showing in 2025. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Miami Marlins over/under win total prediction and pick.
The 2024 Miami Marlins endured a challenging season, finishing with a disappointing 62-100 record. Despite flashes of brilliance from players like Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger, the team struggled with consistency. Injuries to key pitchers and the departure of All-Stars Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler contributed to their struggles. The Marlins ranked last in National League attendance for the 11th consecutive year.
This year, the win total is set at 63.5 games for the Marlins, and this season could be a troubling one as they look to get back on track in 2025.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2025 Win Total Odds
Over 63.5 Wins: +102
Under 63.5 Wins: -128
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Why You Should Bet the Over
While the Miami Marlins are projected to struggle in 2025, there's a compelling case to be made for betting the over on their 63.5 win total. The team's youth movement, coupled with the return of key players from injury, suggests potential for improvement over their disappointing 62-100 record in 2024. Connor Norby, acquired in the Trevor Rogers trade, showed promise in his 36-game stint last season and is poised for a breakout year. The 24-year-old third baseman's versatility and ability to drive the ball to all fields could provide a much-needed offensive boost. Additionally, the return of a healthier pitching staff, including Sandy Alcantara, Braxton Garrett, and Eury Pérez, should significantly strengthen the rotation. The Marlins' pitching development has been a strong suit, and these arms could be the foundation for a more competitive team.
Furthermore, the Marlins have made strategic moves to build for the future, signing 17 players in the 2025 International Signing Period, including highly-ranked prospects Andrew Salas and Kevin DeFrank. While these young players won't impact the 2025 season directly, their addition signals a commitment to long-term success that could energize the current roster. The team's new coaching staff is implementing innovative and unorthodox training methods, which could unlock hidden potential in young players like Xavier Edwards and Jesus Sanchez. With an average team age of just 26 years and only two players over 30, this Marlins squad has room for significant growth and improvement. While 64 wins may seem like a stretch, the combination of returning talent, potential breakout performances, and the unpredictability of young players makes the over an intriguing bet for the 2025 season.
Why You Should Bet the Under
The Miami Marlins are poised for another challenging season in 2025, making the under 63.5 wins an attractive bet for savvy MLB bettors. Coming off a dismal 62-100 record in 2024, the Marlins have entered a full-fledged rebuilding phase under new manager Clayton McCullough. The team's offseason moves, or lack thereof, signal a clear focus on the future rather than immediate competitiveness. With the departure of key players and a reliance on unproven young talent, the Marlins are projected by multiple respected sources to struggle mightily. FanGraphs and PECOTA both forecast another 100-loss season, with projections of 62-100 and 62.3-99.7, respectively. The team's offensive woes are particularly concerning, as they finished last in the National League in runs scored in 2024 and have since traded away their home run leader, Jake Burger.
Furthermore, the Marlins face the daunting task of competing in a strong NL East division, which will likely contribute to their struggles. While there's potential for individual player development, such as Xavier Edwards and Jesus Sanchez showing promise, the overall lack of power in the lineup is a significant concern. ZiPS projections indicate that only one everyday player is expected to hit 20 or more home runs. The Marlins' odds reflect their dire outlook, with BetMGM listing them at +50000 to win the World Series and +20000 to win the NL Eas7. Given the team's projected struggles, the lack of significant offseason improvements, and the competitive nature of their division, betting the under on the Marlins' 63.5 win total appears to be a prudent choice for the 2025 season.
Final Marlins Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Despite the Marlins' disappointing 62-100 record in 2024, there's reason to believe they could surpass their 63.5 win total in 2025. The return of Sandy Alcantara, 2022 NL Cy Young winner, will significantly bolster the rotation. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez form a promising middle-infield duo, while Jesus Sanchez shows potential for a breakout season. The team's focus on player development and new coaching strategies could unlock hidden talent. However, the risk of midseason trades looms if players perform well. FanGraphs projects 71 wins, a notable improvement. Given these factors and the low bar set, the over on 63.5 wins seems achievable for the 2025 Marlins.
Final Marlins Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 63.5 (+102)
