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One year after putting on one of the wildest fights of 2023, Emanuel Navarrete (38-2-1) and Oscar Valdez (32-2) are set to run it back for the former's WBO super featherweight title. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with another prediction and pick.
In their first fight, Navarrete won the back-and-forth war with a unanimous decision to claim the aforementioned belt. However, he has been unable to pick up another win since, fighting Robson Conceicao to a draw in his next fight before moving up to lightweight and losing his quest to conquer another division against Denys Berinchyk.
Valdez has fought once since their memorable war, defeating Liam Wilson by seventh-round TKO in March. Valdez, a former WBC super featherweight champion, has gone 2-2 in his last four fights with his other loss coming against the undefeated Shakur Stevenson.
Here are the Navarrete-Valdez odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Emanuel Navarrete-Oscar Valdez Odds
Emanuel Navarrete: -245
Oscar Valdez: +196
Over 10.5 Rounds: -260
Under 10.5 Rounds: +196
How to Watch Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: ESPN+
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Emanuel Navarrete Will Win
Sixteen months removed from their first fight, both Navarrete and Valdez have said they plan on putting on another war in the rematch, similar to what Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano did in November. Having nearly swept the cards the first time, that would immediately favor Navarrete, who Top Rank clearly wants to be their next young star after losing Stevenson to Matchroom.
The fight was much closer than the scorecards indicate, but in a fight that turned into an all-out brawl, Navarrete was clearly the fighter who wore damage much better. Valdez's right eye was swollen shut by the end of the fight, significantly hampering his ability to read Navarrete's long and lunging punches. While neither man has ever been knocked out, the power seems to be on Navarrete's side.
Navarrete also suffered an injury in the fight, breaking his right hand midway through the bout. He claims he would have knocked Valdez out if that had not happened. Though he has not picked up a win since that fight, he did knock Conceicao down twice in his next match and had some fans believing he did enough to beat the undefeated Berinchyk in May.
Why Oscar Valdez Will Win
From just looking at the scorecards and stats, one would not believe Valdez put up a fight against Navarrete. However, he hurt Navarrete more than once and was the more effective striker to the body. Valdez is the more technical boxer, though he had trouble keeping up with the pace and pressure of Navarrete.
The type of fight that the two plan to re-create favors Valdez more than Navarrete. The champion leaves himself open more than Valdez does, giving the challenger several counter openings. Valdez gave up too many stretches of inactivity, allowing Navarrete to get going too often in their first fight. More body punches would serve Valdez well to slow down the pace of Navarrete. He cannot take over 200 punches again, as the compounding effects showed itself on Valdez's face and swayed the judges' opinions.
Final Navarrete-Valdez Prediction & Pick
With Navarrete going winless in his last two fights, Top Rank is going back to the well that was successful for them in 2023 while simultaneously hoping to get one of their brightest champions his confidence back. But with the way everything has gone down for both fighters over the last year, Valdez enters the rematch with significantly more momentum.
The first fight was much closer than the original betting odds suggested, causing them to tighten for the rematch, but not enough. Both men have power but are equally as durable and unlikely to finish each other. Navarrete held the advantage down the stretch and very well could do the same again, but the first fight could have ended much differently had Valdez not lost vision in one eye halfway through. Valdez looked great in his last win and is the more defensively sound fighter overall.
The power and volume are still with Navarrete but without the optics of a swollen black eye, the scorecards would not have been as wide the first time around. The over is the safe play, and the value on Valdez is too much to ignore.
Final Navarrete-Valdez Prediction & Pick: Oscar Valdez (+196), Over 10.5 Rounds (-260)
