No one is quite sure what the 2023 Atlanta Falcons team will look like once they hit the field on September 10, but they have all the talent to be a successful team this season, while making a statement in an uncertain NFC South division. The biggest question mark for the Falcons lies in their quarterback, Desmond Ridder.

Desmond Ridder is Falcons 2023 starter

There's been lingering question marks about Desmond Ridder going all the way back to last season, even when most Falcons' fans were calling for last year's quarterback, Marcus Mariota, to be replaced by him. Perhaps it was more of a it can't get any worse, so let's see what we get with him, type of deal.

By the time the Falcons started Ridder in Week 15 of last season, the Dirty Birds were out of playoff contention and Mariota had packed his bags, leaving the former Cincinnati quarterback all on his own. So, at that point, it became more of an experiment for head coach Arthur Smith and staff to see if Ridder could handle the position at the NFL level, with hopes he could be their guy heading into 2023.

Ridder finished the season 2-2 as a starter, throwing for 708 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions with a 63% completion percentage. Four games was hardly a large enough sample size but it was all the Falcons got. It did, after all, lead to Ridder earning the starting job. But then again — who else is there?

Some of those lingering question marks about quarterback were rumored to be addressed during the draft. The Falcons were rumored to either be moving up from their eighth position, getting one of the highly touted quarterbacks on the board, or trading their pick to the Tennessee Titans, receiving Ryan Tannehill in return. Whether there was any truth to the Tannehill rumors or not, it made sense given the connection to Smith and his time as the Titans offensive coordinator.

The Falcons instead chose to give Ridder more help, drafting talented running back Bijan Robinson out of Texas. The move, along with others in free agency, proved that the Falcons were putting their trust in the second-year quarterback, for better or worse.

Will it be enough?

History is going against Desmond Ridder

Drafted as the 74th overall pick in the third round in 2022, Ridder faces an historical challenge. Statistics reveal that quarterbacks drafted in the third round have struggled to establish themselves as consistent starters in the NFL. Just going off quarterbacks drafted in the third round in the 21st century, it would seem that Ridder has his work cut out for him to overcome this notion.

Out of the 31 quarterbacks that have been drafted since the year 2000 who have completed a full NFL season, only 12 of them have started over 10 games. Only seven emerged victorious in more than 10 games. Six of those quarterbacks made appearances in fewer than 10 games (per The Athletic).

Notable success stories among third-round quarterbacks include Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos. Wilson is without a doubt the outlier of this group, even with his recent struggles. Selected as the 75th pick in the 2012 draft by the Seattle Seahawks, Wilson was considered at one time ranked among the star quarterbacks of the league. Playing in two Super Bowls, winning one, and earning nine Pro Bowl selections will do that. It's also why the Broncos traded so much for him in 2022.

There's been others, yet not quite as successful as Wilson, such as, Matt Schaub, Josh McCown, Nick Foles and Jacoby Brissett, though they are considered the exceptions rather than the norm.

Falcons fans should be familiar with Schaub. Due to Michael Vick being there at the time of Schaub's arrival in 2004, until Vick's abrupt arrival in 2007, Schaub never got to truly showcase what he could do in Atlanta, and later made a name for himself with the Houston Texans. In total, Schaub played in a 155 games and started 93 those and was a two-time Pro-Bowler.

The Falcons, however, are hoping for more of Wilson type result than Schaub.

Desmond Ridder has shown growth as a quarterback

It's starts with the group Ridder is leading, and for him, that's the offensive personnel he's been assigned with to take the Falcons to the next level in 2023. Players are now talking about him having a “great presence” and becoming a “natural-born leader”.

“He’s just taking command of everything,” offensive lineman Chris Lindstrom said. “He’s doing a great job. He’s staying true to himself, which is cool, being how he always was. As an offensive lineman, communication is the biggest part. If something comes up, just the tone of voice, the command of that, you can’t ask for anything better than what Des does.”

Smith has been growing impressed with Ridder's incremental improvement, noting his ability to absorb new concepts and make daily progress throughout the offseason.

“We have thrown a lot at him,” Smith said, per The Athletic. “There are certainly things we continue to harp on and will continue to evolve, but you have seen a lot of daily improvement, very pleased with the progress he has made day in and day out.”

Offensive coordinator Dave Ragone acknowledges the anticipated growth from Ridder as well. Ragone explained that the team sets expectations for all players, and Ridder is no exception.

“You’re in your second year in the system so there are certain expectations,” Ragone said. “There is a certain bar that we want all our players to be able to continue to push. For him — no different from what we ask the right tackle or left guard to do — come in and do your job.”

Ridder himself has also expressed increased confidence coming into this season, attributing it to finally having a full season under his belt. With a deeper understanding of the game and improved comfort, Ridder's focus now lies in executing plays with precision and mastering the intricate details of the Falcons' offensive system.

The Falcons, whether player or coach, are all finally beginning to trust Ridder, so it seems. But only time and results will tell if these statements are merely empty rhetoric or if they reflect a true shift in confidence towards Ridder as the Falcons' trusted leader on the field.