There's a ton of excitement and optimism surrounding the Atlanta Falcons entering the 2023 NFL season. The Falcons still face some significant questions at a few key positions, but with an overhauled roster and one of the NFL's easiest schedules, they've got their sights set on taking the next step as a potentially sneaky playoff contender under second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder. Below, we continue our NFL odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Falcons.
Limited by a putrid passing attack that generated the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL, Atlanta finished with a 7-10 record for the second consecutive season under coach Arthur Smith in 2022.
Smith's ground-and-pound philosophy had a lot to do with that, as Atlanta ran the ball more than any team in the league and finished with the third-most rushing yards. But it was also of course influenced by the limitations of veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota and rookie third-round pick Desmond Ridder down the stretch.
As a result, the Falcons consistently kept games close but often couldn't close them out, finishing 5-8 in games decided by one score. They also had a jarring home-road split (6-3 at home and 1-7 on the road).
Atlanta's defense was arguably the bigger issue. It started up front in the trenches, as the Falcons generated the second-fewest sacks (21) in the NFL, roughly half the league average (40.5). As a result, the Falcons were shredded across the board, giving up the eighth-most passing yards and the 10th-most yards on the ground.
But with so many new pieces, can the Falcons quickly build chemistry and emerge as a playoff contender out of the NFC South? Without further ado, let's take a look at the Falcons' over/under odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NFL Odds: Falcons Over/Under Win Total
Over 8.5 Wins: -115
Under 8.5 Wins: -105
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Why Atlanta Could Hit The Over
With an overall very favorable schedule, it's easy to see why we're real growth from this team in the Falcons' game-by-game predictions. Even when we account for some tough road tests early in the season and down the stretch in likely cold environments, it's hard not to have interest in taking the over for the Falcons' win total prediction.
But perhaps the biggest reason to consider the over for the Falcons' over/under pick is what the team did in free agency. The Falcons didn't make many splash moves, but they had several savvy signings, including defensive tackles David Onyemata and Calais Campbell, even though Campbell will be 37 at the start of the season.
Ex-Saints linebacker Kaden Elliss comes off a breakout season in New Orleans, where he stood out as a run defender and a pass rusher with seven sacks. He brings some much-needed pass-rush juice to the Falcons' roster. Former Titans and Steelers edge rusher Bud Dupree and third-round rookie Zach Harrison add key depth to Atlanta's defense.
Former Bengals star safety Jessie Bates was the biggest addition off the open market, and he leads a new-look Falcons secondary that also features standout corner A.J. Terrell, fourth-round rookie Clark Phillips, and ex-Lions cornerbacks Mikes Hughes and Jeff Okudah, who came via a low-risk, potentially high-reward trade.
Another reason to like the over on the Falcons' over/under pick is how the team has invested in its offense. Second-round rookie guard Matthew Bergeron joins one of the NFL's top offensive lines, and he should help open up more running lanes for first-round rookie running back Bijan Robinson, who is a leading contender for the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Widely regarded as the top running back prospect in at least five years, Bijan Robinson looks the part as a complete, three-down back with exceptional vision, power, and breakaway speed. He has virtually no weaknesses in his game, either.
Robinson can plow through defenders with tremendous contact balance or break their ankles with sudden jump cuts. He has an incredibly smooth running style and his receiving skills really stood out on film.
Moreover, Robinson fits the Falcons' wide-zone scheme and physical, ground-and-pound offense like a glove, and he gives Atlanta another much-needed playmaker to pair up with Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Tyler Allgeier will also still have a role in this offense after rushing for 1,035 yards and three scores at an eye-popping 4.9 yards per carry as a stellar fifth-round draft steal. He was the NFL's 14th-leading rusher, and he finished second among rookie backs, trailing only second-rounder Kenneth Walker by 15 yards.
While Allgeier really impressed, Bijan Robinson brings so much more to the table, and his presence could make life a lot easier for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has just four starts under his belt.
As a rookie third-round pick, Desmond Ridder completed 73 of 115 passes for 708 yards and two touchdowns in four games (all starts) in the Falcons' run-heavy offense. Ridder will be 24 at the start of his second season, but he could still obviously benefit with additional proven playmakers.
Why Atlanta Could Hit The Under
The minimal investments made in the passing game definitely impacts the Falcons' win total prediction.
As much as we love Bijan Robinson, it's going to take more than the rookie running back to significantly improve Atlanta's passing attack. A couple of the Falcons' undrafted free agents could make the roster and offer developmental upside, but it's a comically thin WR group behind second-year standout wideout Drake London.
After London, free agent additions Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are atop the Falcons' depth chart at receiver.
Hollins comes off a breakout season with the Raiders, hauling in 57 receptions for 690 yards and four scores, with almost a quarter of his total production coming in one early-season game against the Titans. Hollins signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal with the Falcons, while Miller was limited to 23 receptions for 185 yards with the Buccaneers.
Atlanta expects Ridder to take the next step, but he could really use another weapon to take some of the pressure off of third-year tight end Kyle Pitts, second-year wide out Drake London, and rookie running back Bijan Robinson.
Perhaps that will be Cordarrelle Patterson's role. The versatile 32-year-old playmaker may not be a game-changing kick returner anymore, but he had a breakout season in his first year in Atlanta in 2021, setting career-high marks in his rushing totals (618 yards and six scores) and receiving totals (548 yards and five touchdowns).
Patterson was slightly more effective on the ground last year, rushing for 695 yards and eight touchdowns at a 4.8 YPC clip. But he was used very sparingly as a receiver, hauling in just 21 catches for a scoreless 122 yards. If he can revert back into a similar role to the role he had in 2021, then he could be a key X-factor on the Falcons' roster.
Final Falcons Over/Under Pick & Prediction
This is hands down one of the biggest toss-ups across the NFL, given how small of a sample size we saw from Desmond Ridder in his rookie season, along with all of the new pieces on defense. Atlanta has a talented, up-and-coming roster with a favorable schedule in a weak division, but this looks like an eight-win team. It's not the safest bet, but we're taking the under for the Falcons' win total prediction.
Final Falcons Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Under 8.5 Wins: -105
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