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The New York Mets have fought their way into the MLB postseason picture. As of Monday, September 23, they occupy the third and final National League Wild Card spot, leading the Atlanta Braves by two games.
They're in the playoff hunt, but even if the Mets manage to earn a ticket to October, don't go planning their victory parade just yet.
No team is perfect; they all have flaws. For the Mets, their fatal flaw may be more readily apparent than other teams'. Their bullpen is too volatile and not deep enough to deliver them a smooth road to the World Series.
It's not that the Mets don't have a bullpen strategy that can lead them to a close win against a good team. They do. They just don't have a bullpen that can do it consistently over multiple seven-game series. In a vacuum, Jose Butto, Reed Garrett, Phil Maton, and Edwin Diaz are an imposing quartet to take over for a starter who goes six solid innings.
But even through stretches of brilliance, the Mets bullpen has had a tendency to blow leads and walk far too many batters. That's true even of their most trusted — and at times dominant — relievers. Butto has a 13.1% walk rate as of September 23 and Garrett's is sitting at 11.7%. Diaz, who has brought his walk rate down considerably over the last month, is still issuing free passes 8.9% of the time.
The Mets need a dependable late-game strategy
Diaz, who has twice finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting as a reliever, seems to have found his old form, and if he continues the roll he's been on (0.68 ERA in his last 13 appearances), then the Mets' 9th inning outlook is in a good place.
But the pressure ratchets up more than a few notches in the postseason. At bats last longer. Starters are on a shorter leash. Opposing managers typically have an extra player or two on the bench, letting them mix and match more.
As it stands, the Mets' bullpen hasn't shown it can hold up under that kind of strain.
To make matters worse, the Mets have lost one of the relievers they could have counted on to a season-ending injury. Rookie Dedniel Nunez was not only pitching well, recording a 1.65 ERA since June 25, he was also capable of pitching multiple innings. A flexor injury in his right arm ended his October availability.
If the Mets are going to overcome an erratic bullpen, they'll need Maton to continue to pitch as well as he has since New York acquired him in early July. As a Met, he has a 0.818 WHIP and a 6.0% walk rate, while striking out 25.0% of batters. He has allowed just one home run in 25.2 innings.
There is a wild card here that could help the Mets. If Kodai Senga is able to return, either he could finish the season in the bullpen or he could force a current starter, say Jose Quintana, into a bullpen role. But don't count on it. The Mets announced on Sunday that they will shut Senga down for the rest of the regular season after he left his Triple-A rehab start Saturday with tightness in his right triceps. They have not yet ruled him out of a postseason roster spot.
Of course, Senga's weakness last year, even in an All-Star rookie season, was his control. He posted an 11.1% walk rate and led the National League in wild pitches (14).
