Florida State football is one of the most hyped — and most polarizing — teams in the nation ahead of the 2023 college football season. The AP preseason Top-25 has the Seminoles at No. 8, right behind Penn State and ahead of Clemson. The preseason coaches poll has them in the same spot. Florida State finished 10-3 a year ago, but they lost to every ranked team they played. So is Florida State really a top-10 team in 2023?

Here are four Florida State football predictions for 2023:

 

4. LSU beats Florida State badly in Week 1

Week 1's most exciting matchup is LSU vs. Florida State in Orlando. It's the second leg of a two-year neutral site series between these two cross-conference opponents. Florida State won last year's matchup, which was played in New Orleans. The Seminoles blocked LSU's game-tying extra-point attempt with no time on the clock. That was Brian Kelly's first game as the head coach of the Tigers, and the unlikely ending spoiled his debut in dramatic fashion.

While it's technically a neutral site, Florida State will have more of a home crowd advantage in Orlando, just like LSU had last year in New Orleans. However, this game won't follow a similar script to last year's low-scoring affair. LSU will be out for revenge after last year's humiliation.

With a better head coach in Brian Kelly, a better quarterback in Jayden Daniels, and more talented overall roster, LSU will prove to physical and too good for Florida State to handle. LSU will redeem the 2022 loss and win this game by multiple scores, putting a damper on the start of Florida State's highly-anticipated 2023 season.

 

3. FSU starts 2-2 with Clemson loss

Florida State's two most difficult games come in the first four weeks of the season, and then Week 5 is a bye week. They go on the road to take on No. 9 Clemson on Sept. 23.

One thing about Clemson is the Tigers don't lose at home. Their late-season loss to South Carolina in 2022 ended a 40-game home winning streak. Obviously, that doesn't mean every home game Clemson plays has a predetermined outcome, but the odds are stacked heavily against Florida State in this one.

On top of that, Clemson should be a better team than they were a year ago, primarily due to the addition of former TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Riley, like his brother Lincoln, is a brilliant offensive mind and quarterback whisperer. He will unlock former five-star QB Cade Klubnik's full potential. That, paired with Clemson's perennially-great defense, will make them tough to beat.

Clemson will defend its home turf in Week 4 and hand Florida State football its second loss of the season early.

 

2. Jordan Travis isn't a Heisman Finalist

Jordan Travis has the third-highest odds to win the Heisman Trophy, tied with Texas QB Quinn Ewers. Only LSU's Jayden Daniels and reigning Heisman Caleb Williams have higher odds.

However, Travis' stats don't exactly support that expectation. Last year, Williams won the award with 4,919 total yards and 52 touchdowns. Travis had 3,631 total yards and 31 touchdowns in by far his best college season.

Look, Travis is a great player in his own right, and it seems unfair to compare his numbers to Williams'. But in the Heisman Trophy conversation, it isn't. That's the production it takes to win the award, and Travis wasn't close. TCU's Max Duggan was the runner-up last year, and he had 4,121 yards and 41 touchdowns.

It's not like Travis is a young quarterback who's expected to take a huge leap. Travis is 23, and this is his sixth college football season. He'll have a solid year, but he won't be in the Heisman Trophy race.

 

1. FSU loses in the ACC Championship Game

The Week 1 loss to LSU won't count against Florida State in the ACC standings. Thus, they will win enough conference games to make it to the ACC Championship Game against Clemson.

However, Clemson will prevail again behind better quarterback play and a more physical defense. By that point in the season, Clemson will have worked out the kinks offensively and figured out how to move the ball even with limited outside receiving talent.

The Tigers will grind down Florida State's defense with the run game and stifle the Seminoles offensively to claim a second rivalry win of the season.