Florida visits an SEC East foe as they head to Kentucky. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Florida-Kentucky prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Florida enters the game at 3-1 on the season. The season did not start on the right note for Florida. They lost a 24-11 game to Utah as the offense struggled against a stout Utah defense. They would rebound, first with a win over McNeese, and then an upset win over Tennessee. It was a strong second quarter from Florida that won them the game. They scored three times in the second quarter to lead 26-7 at the half and win the game 29-16. Then, last week it was a 22-7 win over Charlotte to get Florida to 3-1 on the year.

Kentucky entered the game at 4-0 on the season. Kentucky has not had the most difficult schedule to this point in the season. They opened facing Ball State and won 44-14. Then it was FCS Eastern Kentucky, and then another MAC opponent in Akron. They faced their first power five opponent last week, as they took on SEC foe Vanderbilt. Kentucky built a dominating lead early in the game. They were up 21-0 in the first quarter and would go on to win 45-28.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Florida-Kentucky Odds

Florida: +1.5 (-115)

Kentucky: -1.5 (-105)

Over: 44.5 (-110)

Under: 44.5 (-110)

How to Watch Florida vs. Kentucky

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN App

Time: noon ET/ 9:00 AM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread

Florida needs a big game this week from Graham Mertz. He has been solid so far this year. Mertz is 84-108 passing for 951 yards and four touchdowns. He has made seven big-time throws according to PFF. He has thrown an interception this year, but only two turnover-worthy passes. Mertz has gotten some solid protection but is still taking sacks. He has been pressured 29 times in four games so far but has taken nine sacks. Mertz has scrambled for positive yardage eight times though. He does have 47 scramble yards this year and two scores, but he has also fumbled the ball twice.

At receiver, they have gotten some solid contributions. That starts with Ricky Pearsall. He has brought in 26 of 35 targets this year for 362 yards and a score. He has been solid after the catch as well, with 145 yards after the catch, averaging 5.6 yards after the catch per reception. Meanwhile, Eugene Wilson III has brought in all 12 of the targets sent his way for 104 yards.

In the running game, Florida has a solid one-two punch to face Kentucky. Trevor Etienne has run 49 times for 329 yards and two scores. He has also forced 19 missed tackles and had six runs over 15 yards. Meanwhile, Montrell Johnson Jr. has run 46 times for 211 yards and three scores.

On defense, Florida has to put pressure on the quarterback in this game to cover. On the year they have 69 pressures and nine sacks. That is led by Princely Umanmielen who has 17 pressures and two sacks this year. Further, with Kentucky having a solid quarterback, Florida has to cover well. This year, the Florida defense has seven pass breakups and an interception. The best indicator of their coverage comes from Shemar James. He is a linebacker who has been targeted 16 times. He has allowed 15 receptions but for just 67 yards and no scores. It is clear, that teams are having to check down a lot against Flordia.

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread

Devin Leary has been very good in his first year at Kentucky. This year he has completed 72 of 123 passes this year for 1,063 yards. He has nine touchdowns and eight big-time throws according to PFF. While he is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and has a lot of touchdowns, there are some concerns. Leary has five interceptions this year, with at least one in each game. Further, he has thrown five more turnover-worthy passes. He has been protected fairly well, with just 39 pressures in four games, and he has done well with it, being sacked just four times.

The most positive part of this offense has been the running game. Ray Davis is the leader of the team rushing-wise. He has run 49 times this year for 311 yards and five scored. He is getting solid blocking this year. Davis is averaging three yards per carry before first contact this year. Further, he has contributed to the passing game. He has nine receptions on 12 targets for 138 yards this year.

Beyond Davis, Devin Leary has some solid receivers to throw to. Trayvon Robinson has brought in 16 of 19 targets for 283 yards this year and three scores. Meanwhile, Dane Key has been good, but not reliable. He has brought in 13 of 26 receptions this year for 196 yards and two touchdowns. He does have three drops on the year though.

Kentucky will also need to stop the running backs from Florida in this game. While they go have 58 stops for offensive failures on 90 attempts and forced a fumble, they have had some tackling issues. Kentucky has missed 25 tackles in the run game so far this year. Also, each of the top seven tackle guys in the run game has an average depth of tackles three yards or more downfield. Kentucky has been solid in the pass rush department though. They have 91 quarterback pressures on the year for 15 sacks. Trevin Wallace has four of the sacks on 12 pressures. Deone Walker has 15 pressures with two sacks as well.

Final Florida-Kentucky Prediction & Pick

Florida has been efficient on offense this year. It has not always been exciting or high-flying, but it is working. Even more, Florida has one of the best pass defenses in the SEC this year. Kentucky has been solid on defense as well, but they have not faced any major offenses this year. Kentucky looks good so far this year. They are the favorite at home. Florida has lost three of the last five and both of the last two to Kentucky. Before 2018, Kentucky had not beaten Florida since 1986. Kentucky has not won three in a row since winning four in a row from 1948-1951. They do not make it to three in a row in this one. Take Florida and enjoy the extra points.

Final Florida-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Florida +1.5 (-115)