As you'll soon see, I'm not one of those prognosticators who comes into a NCAA Tournament predictions column ready to beat you over the head with a chalkboard. I'll gladly fall on my sword and admit I just swung and missed on some of my more out there March Madness picks, and here's why: When UMBC upset Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament, it was my belief that the entire process of filling out the bracket changed, and that belief has only been reinforced over the past few years. Consider how in the last three years, we've seen three 15 seeds upset 2 seeds, and another 1 seed go down to a 16 seed. We've had an 8 seed, a 9 seed, and an 11 seed in the Final Four. More than ever before, the tournament feels maddeningly wide open.
East Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 8. Florida Atlantic vs. 9. Northwestern … These are two teams I had pegged as potential Cinderella teams before the bracket was revealed, and of course, A) The committee matched them up against each other, and B) The winner gets to play UConn in front of what will certainly be a pro-UConn crowd in Brooklyn, one of the five Burroughs of Storrs South. Either way, this has the potential to be one of the more intriguing round one games of the entire tournament. Boo Buie can shoot his way to tourney stardom, and Brooks Barnhizer is one of the most underrated and under appreciated players in the country. And against almost every other 8 or 9 seed in the tournament, I'd have Northwestern advancing. However, this Florida Atlantic team is giving off 2011 Butler vibes — the year after the initial Cinderella run, where another, even more unexpected run takes place.
Most Intriguing Potential Later Round Matchup: 1. Connecticut vs. 4. Auburn (Sweet Sixteen) … Just an absolute doozy of a matchup that I could've seen taking place in the Elite Eight, the Final Four, or even the National Championship Game if the draw broke the right way. Instead, the Big East Tournament Champion (UConn) and the SEC Tournament Champion (Auburn) have a chance to meet in the Sweet Sixteen.
Cinderella, Is That You?: 10-seed Drake Bulldogs … To the naked eye the East region looks like the one least likely to produce a notable Cinderella team, but Tucker and Darian DeVries is a father/son duo that hoops fans will be happy to rally behind if Drake can make an extended run in the tourney. And let me tell you, the Bulldogs do have the talent to do so. The draw isn't easy: Washington State has kept ten of their opponents under 60 points all season, and Iowa State's defense is even more dominant if Drake manages to get to the 2nd Round.
One Big-ish Question: How will Ian Eagle do as he steps in for Jim Nantz? … I assume that the Ian Eagle/Grant Hill/Bill Raftery trifecta will be covering the East Regional during the second weekend of the tournament, and we know they'll be in Brooklyn to call what we can assume will be UConn vs. Florida Atlantic or Northwestern in Round 2. I love Ian Eagle. I think he's one of the best play-by-play announcers in the world, and that applies to professional football in addition to both college and pro basketball. But man, Nantz has been a staple of the Final Four for my entire life. In fact, Nantz's first year taking over for Brent Musberger was in 1991, a year before ©Sonny Brackets was born. All I've ever known is Jim Nantz calling the biggest college hoops games of the year. But if ever there were a worthy successor, it's “The Bird.”
The Winner: Connecticut Huskies … Difficult road be damned, I believe UConn is the best team in the country, and that's reason enough to advance the Huskies to the Final Four.
West Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 5. Saint Mary's vs. 12. Grand Canyon … Just as Florida Atlantic vs. Northwestern is a matchup of teams full of Cinderella potential, so is Saint Mary's vs. Grand Canyon. In fact, give me the winner of this coin flip matchup to take down Alabama in the 2nd Round and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Most Intriguing Potential Later Round Matchup: 1. North Carolina vs. 2. Arizona (Elite Eight) … Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love vs. ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis, and to make this one even juicier, Love spent his first three collegiate seasons at North Carolina, sharing the same backcourt as Davis. The fit was never quite right, and both Love and Davis were clearly better off after the breakup. Arizona has some tournament demons to exorcise before we get to this matchup, but my goodness, Crypto.com Arena would be electric if we got a Wildcats/Tar Heels Elite Eight matchup.
Cinderella, Is That You?: 11-seed New Mexico Lobos … The Lobos make for one of the most intriguing Cinderella candidates in the tourney. Not only does New Mexico come into March Madness with all kinds of momentum on their side after successfully running the slate in the Mountain West just to make the field of 68, but they've got pedigree on their side. Led by Rick Pitino's son, Richard Pitino, as well as the son's of former NBA players Eddie House (Jaelen House) and Jamal Mashburn (Jamal Mashburn Jr.), the Lobos play with pace and score a lot of points, but won with a little bit of defense in the Mountain West Tournament, holding all four of their opponents to 66 points or fewer. A 1st round matchup versus a reeling Clemson squad feels like a favorable opening round matchup, and Baylor has plenty of warts. That leaves a likely matchup against Arizona in the Sweet 16, and we all know about Zona's recent tournament demons. That's why I've got New Mexico making a run to the Elite Eight. Told ya, it's not all chalk here.
One Big-ish Question: How will I feel when New Mexico loses in the opening round to Clemson, losing me money and destroying my bracket in the process? … I'll let Captain Raymond Holt take this one.
The Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels … An ACC Tournament loss to NC State makes the Tar Heels feel more vulnerable than they were two weeks ago when they swept their season series with Duke. But top to bottom, there's not another team as talented as the Tar Heels in the West Region. Yes, de facto road games in both the Sweet Sixteen (versus either Saint Mary's or Grand Canyon) and then against Arizona (or in my case, New Mexico) in the Elite Eight make Carolina's path to the Final Four a bumpy one, but one that the Tar Heels should be able to handle.
South Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 3. Kentucky vs. 14. Oakland … This one intrigues me only because I'm not sure how many points are going to be scored. We all know Kentucky can score, and that if you're playing against Kentucky you can probably score too. Oakland topped 80 points ten times this season, and gave up 80 or more on eight occasions, so they're comfortably playing in high scoring contests. I know the over/under for this game is only 163.5, but only nineteen games in NCAA Tournament history have hit the 200 point mark, and I think there's an outside shot this game could be number twenty.
Most Intriguing Potential Later Round Matchup: 4. Duke vs. 12. James Madison … Get your Duke vs. Dukes quips ready now, because everyone will be ready to fire them off if James Madison manages to upset Wisconsin in the 1st Round.
Cinderella, Is That You?: 11-seed NC State … The story for NC State is one that's awfully similar to New Mexico's, only without the nepotism. However, the Wolfpack do have DJ Burns, the long-lost relative — at least from a play-style standpoint — of Zach Randolph. NC State had to win five games in five days to make the tourney, after spending most of the season as a distant bubble team at best. Now that NC State has punched their ticket to the Big Dance, they've got an inconsistent Texas Tech team in the opening round — the Red Raiders are 7-7 in their last fourteen games — and then a potential matchup with Kentucky in the 2nd Round. I love this Kentucky team, and I've got the Wildcats making a deep run, but would it be stunning if Kentucky's fundamental lack of interest in playing defense caught up with them? Absolutely not.
One Big-ish Question: Is Tyler Kolek healthy? … This is more than just a big-ish question for Marquette. The Golden Eagles have played reasonably well without the 2023 Big East Player of the Year, but Kam Jones and Oso Ighodaro aren't a potent enough one-two punch to lead Marquette on a deep tourney run. The fact that officials allow head coach Shaka Smart to play defense from the sideline does work in Marquette's favor, but if Kolek is still hampered by an oblique injury, I think Marquette is susceptible to an early exit for the third straight year under Smart.
The Winner: Kentucky Wildcats … I really, really badly wanted to take Houston here, but I can't get over how banged up the Cougars are and how disjointed they looked in the Big 12 Tournament Final against Iowa State. It's a belief of mine that great coaching, great guard play, and momentum are three of the biggest factors come NCAA Tournament time. Yes, Kentucky lost their first SEC Tournament game, but I saw what they were able to do going into hostile territory against Tennessee, and that confirmed what I was already beginning to believe — with great coaching, great guard play, and a little bit of momentum on their side, Kentucky has a National Championship Game ceiling.
Midwest Region
Best Round 1 Matchup: 1. Purdue vs. 16. Grambling State … There are certainly more competitive matchups on the board, but because of how Purdue exited the Big Dance last year — losing as a 1 seed to Fairleigh Dickinson, the smallest team in the 2023 NCAA Tournament — this one is practically must-see TV. Much like FDU last year, Grambling will be undersized and undermanned against a Purdue team that has been a regular season juggernaut while Zach Edey has been on the roster, but can head coach Donte Jackson use the Tobin Anderson playbook to conjure up some March magic?
Most Intriguing Potential Later Round Matchup: 2. Tennessee vs. 7. Texas (2nd Round) … The Rick Barnes Bowl, and you better believe I have Texas winning this matchup and advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Come March, Rick Barnes is always going to Rick Barnes. That's your final warning, friends.
Cinderella, Is That You?: 12-seed McNeese State … Only twice in NCAA Tournament history has a 12-seed made a run to the Elite Eight. Missouri did it in 2002, and then Oregon State did it again in 2021. Each time, those 12-seeds benefitted from not having to play the 1-seed in the Sweet Sixteen, and (spoiler alert) that's what I see happening for McNeese State this year. Will Wade's bunch, led by Southland Conference Player of the Year Shahada Wells, may have played an embarrassingly easy non-conference schedule (including a mid-December game versus Mississippi University for Women — yes, you read that correctly), but my belief is they have the juice, the coaching, and maybe most importantly, the draw to make a deep run.
One Big-ish Question: Is this the most unpredictable region? … I say yes. There are legitimately six different teams I've considered having win this region over the past three days, and that means one of two things: it's either going to be chalk city, or an absolute shit-show that busts every bracket in America.
The Winner: Creighton Bluejays … The Bluejays came impossibly close to advancing to the Final Four last year, getting knocked out by a last second free throw by San Diego State's Darrion Trammell. It's likely that the 2024 squad is superior to 2023's, and Creighton resides in a pretty cushy region if you ask me.
Final Four
The Championship Game: Ten years ago, as 7 and 8 seeds respectively, UConn and Kentucky made a pair of unexpected runs to the National Championship Game. This year, at least from a seeding standpoint, the chances of a Huskies/Wildcats National Championship Game is far more likely, and that's exactly where I'm going after far more agonizing than I'm comfortable admitting. At the top, I called Connecticut the best team in the country, and for that exact reason, I've got the Huskies cutting down the nets in Glendale.
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