After the upset of Clemson, Duke faces Lafayette. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Duke-Lafayette prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Lafayette comes in after getting a win on the road over Sacred Heart. Lafayette opened the scoring with an eight-play drive for 86 yards and a touchdown. It was their first drive of the game and Jamar Curtis scored the 18-yard score. In the second quarter, they would add another touchdown on a Ryan Schuster four-yard run after and 80-yard drive. At half, they would lead 13-0. In the third quarter, both teams failed to score, and Sacred Heart took the lead in the fourth. Still, Lafayette stuck back. they scored a touchdown with 7:24 left to go in the game and would hold on for the win.

Duke came away with a huge win over number nine Clemson. The offense struggled in the first half, scoring just six points on two field goals, but they held Clemson to just seven points on defense and were down just one at the half. Then, Riley Leonard took over. He had a 44-yard run to put Duke up in the third quarter. After a touchdown drive and two-point conversion in the fourth quarter, Duke was in command. They would end up winning 28-7.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Lafayette-Duke Odds

Lafayette: +41.5 (-120)

Duke: -41.5 (-102)

Over: 47.5 (-110)

Under: 47.5 (-110)

How to Watch Lafayette vs. Duke

TV: ACC Network

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 6:00 PMET/ 3:00 PM PT

*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Lafayette Will Cover The Spread

The run game was the key to Lafayette's last game. Jamar Curtis was great. He went for 184 yards on 19 carries and a score. He had five carries over 15 yards and another one over ten in the game. Meanwhile, he caused eight missed tackles and averaged 4.26 yards after contact in the game. He was by far the start on the ground, scoring one of the three rushing touchdowns for Lafayette. Overall, Lafayette ran for 251 yards and an average of 8.1 yards per carry. They only had 3.94 yards per carry after first contact, but great run blocking helped them throughout the game.

Meanwhile, Lafayette needs better quarterback play. Ryan Schuster was just 6-14 on the day for 40 yards and an interception. He was pressured on seven of 18 dropbacks and that led to four sacks and four incomplete passes. The issue may have been playcalling. The average depth of target for Schuster was 12.8 yards down the field, and oftentimes time he missed the wide receiver by a lot. If they can work on making more short passes, while keeping their run game going, it could be a different story for Lafayette.

Further, the defense needs to keep up with what they did. They had 19 quarterback pressures in the game and came away with three sacks. they also had 33 stops for offensive failure, led by Michel Vaughn, who has four. The biggest issue in the game was missed tackles. They missed 11 tackles in the game, and those led to big plays. They were solid in the pass defense, and the defense was good overall, but with a few miscues and a poor offense, they could not get a win in the first game.

Why Duke Will Cover The Spread

Riley Leonard had a great game against Clemson. He went 17-33 passing for 175 yards, but more importantly, he ran for 98 yards and a touchdown in the game. In the passing game, he was conservative. He averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt while going for an average depth of target of just 5.4 yards. He was hampered by two drops and one batted ball, plus offensive line play. In 38 dropbacks, Leonard was under pressure 19 times. Still, he did well with the pressure. He was not sacked, got 15 passes off, and scrambled another four times.

In the running game, Leonard had seven designed ruin plays and was great in them. He ran for 93 yards in those plays with the touchdown. Four of the seven rushes went for over ten yards with one going over 15. He averaged 5.36 yards after his first contract while making five tackles miss. The run game was the best part of the offense for Duke. Jordan Waters also helped out. He ran 11 times for 63 yards and a score. Waters was not as elusive as Leonard, causing just one missed tackle, but he was solid after first contact. He gained 2.81 yards per carry after the contract.

The defense was not perfect for Duke, but it was solid. Duke had 24 quarterback pressures, led by RJ Oben. Oben had five pressures in the game, hit the quarterback three times plus had a sack. Duke as a whole had two sacks and six quarterback hits, so Ober was a major standout. Meanwhile, Duke forced two fumbles in the game, while also having an interception. they scored on defense and broke up five passes. The defensive backs were solid and made plays. They will continue to do so against a poor passing team in Austin Peay.

Final Lafayette-Duke Prediction & Pick

This should be a massive victory for Duke. Yes, Duke was fully prepared for Clemson and put everything out there. Still, they shut down what was expected to be a quality offense from Clemson. Further, they were able to score on the Clemson defense. They did struggle to move the ball, and the accuracy of Riley Leonard should be a concern. In this game, Austin Peay does not have the defensive backs to capitalize on a lack of accuracy from Riely.

There is also a major disparity along the lines of scrimmage. Duke protected their quarterback fairly well, at least enough to give him time to make a target or to scramble. Meanwhile, Austin Peay converted under one-third of their pressures against an FCS school. They will not get the same pressure this week. The defensive line for Duke was solid as well, while Austin Peay struggled on the offensive line. Expect Duke to pitch a shutout in this game, while they score more than enough to cover.

Final Lafayette-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -41.5 (-102); Over 47.5 (-110)