The Los Angeles Lakers believe they have the depth, talent, and continuity to contend for a title in 2023-24.

On Tuesday, they'll begin that quest with a fitting early barometer: the Denver Nuggets, shortly after the defending champs receive their rings.

The Lakers are entering the regular season rife with optimism. They ran back the squad that reached the conference finals. They added logical pieces around the edges and took high-upside flyers. Darvin Ham and his staff have a season under their belt.

The West is loaded. LeBron James and Anthony Davis — the Lakers' only dudes over 30 — carry the usual health concerns. There may be at least one rotation-caliber player out of the mix at any given time. Midseason moves are likely.

Before the marathon commences, here are 10 bold predictions about the 2023-24 Los Angeles Lakers.

The Lakers will field a top-10 offense

The Lakers haven't finished in the top half of the league in offensive rating since 2019-20 (they were 14th post-deadline last season). They've relied on elite defense, getting to the line, and transition to compensate.

That's about to change. Thanks to established cohesion and an abundance of capable shooters and ball-handlers, the Lakers' offense was “a little bit ahead of our defense” in the preseason, per Ham.

Ham is utilizing a 5-0ut system this year, which should open up the floor for LeBron, AD, D'Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves (among others). They are already layering more complex actions on top of the foundation they built last season.

“We have a team full of guys that can all dribble, pass, and shoot,” Ham said, “who are all young, athletic, fast quick that can make plays off the dribble from a face-up position. It's a similar system that they ran when they won the championship in 2020.”

Shooting will (finally) be a strength

With the exception of the bubble playoffs, it's been a minute since a Lakers team could credibly call perimeter shooting a strength. In fact, 2014-15 was the last time the Lakers were not in the bottom 10 in 3-point percentage.

This year's group should end the cold streak. Check these 2022-23 3-point percentages:

  • Russell: 39.6%
  • Reaves: 39.8%
  • Gabe Vincent: 33.4% (37.8% in the playoffs)
  • Taurean Prince: 38.1%
  • Rui Hachimura: 31.9% (48.7% in the playoffs)
  • Christian Wood: 37.6%
  • Max Christie: 41.9%

FWIW, those seven players shot a combined 52-for-123 (42.3%) from downtown in the preseason.

“Anytime you can play with a group of guys longer, you build that chemistry,” noted Reaves. “You build just really the feel of playing as a unit. That leads to not a good shot, but a great (one). So we try to preach a lot of good-to-great. … We’ve brought in guys that can really shoot the ball and play the right way.”

LeBron and Davis are coming off forgettable shooting years, though both shot effectively in exhibitions. We'll see if LeBron can get his groove back. The early returns on Davis' jumper are promising. Either way, outside shooting should be an actual weapon for this team — or reliable enough, at the very least.

Anthony Davis will lead the Lakers in scoring 

For all the handwringing about Davis' inconsistent offensive aggression — and his icy jumper — he ended up averaging 25.9 points on a career-best 56.3% shooting last season.

Fresh off a record extension, pretty much everybody besides Davis is declaring him the face of the team. Between the increased expectations, improved spacing — which will allow him to bulldoze downhill to the basket — LeBron's deference (more on that below), and a democratized bevy of supporting playmakers, Davis should lead the Lakers in scoring for the first time since the championship campaign. (He'll also contend for Defensive Player of the Year, thereby positioning him in the MVP race).

“He’s the heart and soul of our team,” said Ham.

Austin Reaves will become the first Laker to win Most Improved Player

I broke this down here.

And: He'll sell more jerseys than AD

AD was third in jersey sales in 2019-20 — his first year with the Lakers. Since then, he's failed to crack the top 10. Reaves, meanwhile, has become an outsized fan favorite and a global superstar. Not that AD isn't immensely popular, too, I can just see Austin merch flying off the shelves.

LeBron will post a career-low usage rate

The Lakers will be less reliant on James' scoring than ever before. After all, the 21-year veteran is approaching 39 years young (although he may have a few more seasons left, if his new Beats commercial is any indication).

LeBron's 33.3 usage rate in 2022-23 was, remarkably, his highest since moving to Los Angeles and the fifth-highest of his career. Of LeBron's five lowest usage rates, two were his rookie and sophomore campaigns, and three came alongside either Dwyane Wade or Kyrie Irving. Reaves and Russell are not quite at that level, but they're more than capable of being lead creators for an upper-echelon squad.

At this stage, LeBron is at his most destructive when exploding downhill in quick bursts: delayed cuts, fast breaks, barreling into the lane. I expect him to spend much of the regular season lingering off-ball and choosing his spots, as he increasingly did in the 2023 playoffs. He'll make sure to have enough gas in the tank for crunchtime.

Rob Pelinka will make moves — but they won't include D'Angelo Russell

Everybody expects Russell to be included in any midseason trade. He signed a movable short-term deal and waived his no-trade clause. The Lakers can package his salary with another quality piece (Hachimura, Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt?) for a borderline star, i.e. Jerami Grant, Mikal Bridges, or Irving.

Perhaps I'm drinking Kool-Aid, but I envision the Lakers holding onto Russell. DLo was dialed-in throughout the preseason: 13.5 points, 5.3 assists, 45.5% from 3. His smooth pick-and-roll skills and reliable shooting fit seamlessly around AD and LeBron. His chemistry — on and off the court (and course) — with Reaves is real.

“I feel like he’s going to have a big, big year,” Ham said. “Just seeing the way he was attacking his body. To see the type of work he was putting in in the gym. And, again, losing together brings you closer. He had a tough series against Denver, but it doesn’t represent who he is as a basketball player. I knew that type of thing, for a guy like him and the way he’s programmed since I’ve been around him, that’s more fuel for the fire. As opposed to being ostracized. He has that chip on his shoulder. He wants to help us win.”

Russell insists he's committed to impacting winning above all else this season. He's even modeling his defense after a fellow large combo guard, Derrick White.

The Lakers have a plethora of useful twentysomethings whom they can throw into deals. If Russell shines into February, they'll be better off keeping him around and upgrading the roster elsewhere.

Of course, Russell has proven his regular season chops many times over. He's yet to do so in the playoffs.

Max Christie will become a rotation staple

“Max Christie is a dog,” Jaxson Hayes said after the third day of training camp. “His game has stood out a lot to me. I watched him in Summer League. … He’s come out here and just kept the same energy and the same mentality. So, he’s been killing it.”

Christie impressed as a rookie. Across two rotation stints, he shot 23-of-52 (44.2%) from 3. His IQ, athleticism, and overall 3-and-D potential were readily apparent.

He's poised to make a leap. The 20-year-old — who has added 15 pounds of muscle since the 2022 NBA Draft — had a fine preseason, unlike his competition for the backup wing spot, Cam Reddish. He didn't convert at an ideal rate from the field (39.6%), but he flashed the shot-creation chops that opened eyes in Vegas.

“I definitely feel more comfortable,” Christie said about his second camp. “I can just tell by the way I carry myself. I think I see things a lot easier than last year for sure. … I think that just shows my aggressiveness on the floor when I'm playing, offensively and defensively.”

Jaxson Hayes will be more impactful than Christian Wood

Hayes and Wood are competing for backup center minutes (the Lakers will deploy two-big lineups with AD, but it's unclear how frequently). The preseason can be misleading, but Hayes far outperformed Wood (who admitted he's playing his way into shape after barely hooping over the summer amid free agency talks).

“I told him, ‘I want you to be our best shot-blocker, best rebounder, best runner, best screen-setter, best roller,'” Ham said about Hayes.

Transition defense has been a major Achilles heel throughout last season and this preseason. Hayes can help in that department.

“I remember playing the Lakers last year, that was a big key for us was attack their transition defense,” he said. “So I want to make sure I can help with that in getting back and setting up in the paint so people aren’t just getting fastbreak layups and stuff like that.”

If the Lakers' offense clicks, Wood's production won't be as vital — unless Davis is hurt. (Wood, for his part, claims he's ready to prioritize winning, too.) Hayes, meanwhile, offers length, athleticism, and rim-running the Lakers haven't enjoyed since JaVale McGee. Wood's a pure scorer; Hayes has a chance to be a dynamic, valuable role player.

The Lakers will hit the over

The Lakers' regular-season over-under win total is currently listed at 46.5, per FanDuel. That figure assumes LeBron and Davis miss chunks of games — as they have each of the past three seasons — and that the Lakers generally prioritize health over seeding.

I'm going over. The Lakers won 18 of their final 26 games last season (then two playoff rounds) after transforming the roster. Reaves, Hachimura, and Christie will ascend. The increased depth, versatility, and youth around LeBron and Davis — who fixed their respective foot ailments — should enable the Lakers to manage loads without sacrificing dubs.

After wallowing in or below the Play-In zone for the past three years, the Lakers will power to 50+ wins and home-court advantage in the opening round.

Season prediction: 51-31, No. 4 seed