Louisville looks to end their season on a high note as they face USC in the Holiday Bowl. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Holiday Bowl Louisville-USC prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Holiday Bowl began back in 1978 and has been in San Diego the entire time. It was originally played at San Diego Stadium, as known as Qualcomm Stadium. It played there until 2019 when it moved to Petco Park. The PAC-12 has been part of this game since 1997, replacing the WAC as a tie-in. Starting in 2022, the ACC joined as the other team. The game was missed twice in recent years, with Covid canceling both the 2020 and 2021 games. Further, this game has seen its fair share of stars, from Jim McMahon to Joey Harrington and recently Leonard Williams. This will be the fourth time USC will represent the PAC-12 in this game, going 1-2 in the previous three. Louisville will play for the first time in the game representing the ACC.

Louisville comes into the game sitting at 10-3 on the year. After starting 6-0, they were upset by Pitt mid-year. Louisville would rebound and win the next four, but then were upset again, losing to Kentucky in the last game of the year. They would then go to the ACC title game. Even with Florida State not having their top two quarterbacks Louisville could not score enough. Florida State kicked three field goals and scored a touchdown while holding Louisville to two field goals. FSU would take the 16-6 win.

Meanwhile, it has been a disappointment of a year for USC. They started the year 6-0 before falling to Notre Dame and Utah. They would rebound with a one-point win over Cal but then lose their last three. None of the games were close as they lost to Washington, Oregon, and UCLA. USC has not had a win by more than a score since week four against Arizona State.

Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

Holiday Bowl Odds: Louisville-USC Odds

Louisville: -7 (-115)

USC: +7 (-105)

Over: 58.5 (-110)

Under: 58.5 (-110)

How to Watch Louisville vs. USC

Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT

TV: FOX

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread

Louisville sits 49th in the nation in points per game while also sitting 49th in yards per game. They were 56th in the rushing game while sitting 56th in the passing game. Jack Plummer leads this Louisville offense. He passed for 3,060 yards this year while completing 235 of 375 passes this year. He has 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on the year. Plummer did not have a touchdown in the game with Florida State, but in his last four regular-season games has eight touchdown passes. Still, he did not protect the ball well at the end of the year, having interceptions in each of his last four games.

Louisville will be missing a lot in this game. Their top runningback Jawhar Jordan has declared for the draft and will not be playing. He has 1,123 yards on the ground this year while scoring 13 times. That will lead to Isaac Guerendo being the primary back. He has 649 yards this year on just 109 rushes. That is good for six yards per carry, while he was great after contact, with 453 yards after first contact this year. Further, he scored eight times this year.

Louisville will also be missing their top wide receiver. Jamari Thrash has also opted out of this game. He has 855 yards this year with six scores. This will lead to Chris Bell and Kevin Coleman being the top receiving options. Bell has 386 yards this year while scoring twice. Coleman has 349 yards and two scores as well. The leading touchdown man that will be playing is Ahmari Huggins-Bruce who scored four times this year.

On defense, Louisville was 24th in the nation in points allowed per game, while sitting 17th in yards allowed. They were 13th against the run while sitting 45th against the passing game. First-team All-ACC defensive end Ashton Gillotte will be the player to watch in this one. He had nine sacks while having 55 total quarterback pressures. Further, he has 28 stops for offensive failures in the run game while forcing two fumbles.

Why USC Will Cover The Spread

USC was the third-highest-scoring team in college football this year while sitting 12th in yards per game. They were 81st in the run game while sitting fourth in the passing game. Still, they will be without Caleb Williams in this one. He passed for 3,647 yards this year and 30 touchdowns. With Malachi Nelson in the transfer portal, it is expected to be Miller Moss in the bowl game. He played in three games early in the year, completing 23 of 32 passes for 309 yards and a touchdown.

USC will also be without their top running back. Marshawn Lloyd has opted out of the game, and gone are his 816 yards and no score this year. Still, they have Austin Jones, who has 406 yards on the year on just 73 carriers. Further, He scored seven times this year and did not have a fumble. He was not great after first contact, with just 2.97 yards per carry after contact, but he will have a chance to improve that with more carries.

Meanwhile, USC will have their top wide receiver in terms of yards and receptions. Tahj Washington enters the game with 963 yards on 52 receptions this year. He has scored six times as well. Still, they are missing their big playmaker. Brenden Rice is out for this game and gone are his 791 yards and 12 touchdowns. That will mean Zachariah Branch into a bigger role, and he has 311 yards and two scores this year.

On defense USC was 119th in points against per game, giving up 34.9 points per game this year. They were 117th in yards per game while sitting 115th against the rush and 110th against the passing game. First-team All-Pac-12 player Calen Bullock has opted out, which leaves a major hole in the secondary. Solomon Byrd is expected to play though. He led the team with seven sacks this year while having 40 total quarterback pressures. He also had 30 stops for offensive failures this year forcing four fumbles in the run game.

Final Louisville-USC Prediction & Pick

USC was struggling before being decimated by opt-outs and transfers. USC was 7-5 with a potential number-one pick at quarterback, plus they are without their top running back and a large portion of their secondary. Louisville has a lot of their defense playing, and their quarterback is in the game. Louisville struggled against Florida State, but those are two different levels of defense. USC was one of the worst in the nation while at full strength. Take Louisville in this one.

Final Louisville-USC Prediction & Pick: Louisville -7 (-115)