We’re set for yet another betting prediction and pick for UFC 306 as we turn towards one of our headlining Main Card bouts in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. No. 1-ranked Magomed Ankalaev will face No. 5-ranked Aleksander Rakic in a high-stakes matchup to determine a title challenger. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ankalaev-Rakic prediction and pick.
Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1) has gone 10-1-1-1 during his time with the UFC since 2018. He’s been at the top of this division’s rankings for quite some time and after wins over Johnny Walker, Anthony Smith, and Thiago Santos, he’s finally ready to notch one more and exact his title aspirations. Ankalaev stands 6’3″ with a 75-inch reach.
Aleksander Rakic (14-4) has gone 6-3 in the UFC since 2017. Following wins over Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos, he’s lost back-to-back bouts against Jan Blachowicz and most recently Jiri Prochazka. He’ll continue to improve as he’d effectively earn a No. 1 contender spot with a win here. Rakic stands 6’4″ with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 308 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 308 Odds: Magomed Ankalaev-Aleksander Rakic Odds
Magomed Ankalaev: -375
Aleksander Rakic: +295
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why Magomed Ankalaev Will Win
Magomed Ankalaev looked very impressive in his most recent win over Johnny Walker. While Walker served as a solid opponent, Ankalaev proved that he’s still levels above the competition and belongs in any title discussions if he’s able to notch yet another win here. Dana White has stated in the past that Ankalaev is next-in-line for a title shot, so this upcoming bout will be extremely important for him in rounding out his resume and becoming undeniable for the next shot at the belt.
While Ankalaev is known for his dominant wrestling techniques, he’s actually been more active with his striking throughout his run to the top of the division. Six of his 10 UFC wins have come by way of knockout as he continues to improve his kickboxing with each passing fight. In other situations, he’s fully capable of keeping opponents on the ground and earning control time over them as he secures rounds in decision wins.
Why Aleksander Rakic Will Win
Aleksander Rakic has had a long road to recovery following his knee injury against Jan Blachowicz. He basically blew his knee out and needed surgery for a torn ACL, so it came as no surprise that he didn’t look to be his usual confident self in his last bout against Prochazka. Nevertheless, Rakic is accustomed to running through his competition and making life difficult for hesitant strikers. If he’s able to press the action here and keep Ankalaev on the retreat, he should be able to come up with an upset win during this one.
Aleksander Rakic has to know his preparation for this fight will have to include wrestling defense and getting back to his feet. However, knowing he was compromised heading into fight with Prochazka, it’s a very telling sign to see him return to his sharp striking in recent training footage. People forget that Rakic was beating Blachowicz handily before injuring his knee, while Ankalaev arguably lost a split decision against the same opponent. Rakic serves as a matchup problem for anyone in this division.
Final Magomed Ankalaev-Aleksander Rakic Prediction & Pick
This will be an extremely close fight in terms of skills and both men are at the top of their game as well as the division. Magomed Ankalaev is the betting favorite here due to his recent success, but he’s had a few indefinite results as of late. Given his willingness to stand and strike with opponents, I suspect Ankalaev will be stunned with the power coming back his way from Rakic.
Furthermore, Rakic is very active in throwing leg kicks and we’ve seen Ankalaev struggle to defend the attack in the past. If Rakic is able to pepper the legs and keep this fight in striking range, he should be able to control the striking exchanges with his reach advantage.
For our final prediction, we’ll have to take Rakic as the betting underdog simply for the value within this line. The betting line should be closer to a pick’em and I expect a very hard-fought bout from both men. Let’s ride the underdog here with the betting value.
Final Magomed Ankalaev-Aleksander Rakic Prediction & Pick: Aleksander Rakic (+295)