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Two second-place teams face off as the Miami Marlins visit the Baltimore Orioles. It is now time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Orioles prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Miami Marlins are looking to catch the Braves and win the division for the first time in franchise history. This is the best first half of a season the Marlins have ever had. The Marlins have made the playoffs three times in franchise history, winning two World Series, but losing the division to the Braves each time. The Marlins have won five of their last ten games and sit at 53-39 on the season. They are 8.5 games back of the Braves but sit first in the NL Wild-Card race.
The Baltimore Orioles sit second in the division at 54-35. One of the biggest surprises of the season, the Orioles have found themselves in second all year long. The Orioles are drawing a lot of praise right now for what they have done, and finished the first half hot, winning their last five games. They enter the game winners of five in a row and six of their last ten. Still, they are two back of the Rays in the AL East and sit in the top spot in the AL Wild Card race.
Here are the Marlins-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Orioles Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-200)
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.6 (-114)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Orioles
TV: BSFL/MASN2
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:05 PM ET/ 4:05 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have never won the division, and maybe this could be the year. The biggest issue for the Marlins is scoring runs. They are 21st in the majors in scoring runs this year, while sitting 3rd in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging percentage.
Jorge Soler and Luis Arraez are leading this team. Arraez has the highest WAR on the team at 3.9. He leads the majors in batting average at .383 and will be making a run at .400. Arraez is still hitting well this month. He is currently hitting .324 on the month with a .361 OBP. He has three RBIs and has scored four times.
Jorge Soler leads the team in run production, hitting 23 home runs, and batting in 51. In July, he is hitting .333 with a .395 OBP. He has just one home run on the month though, and has driven in four runs. Soler has been scoring a lot though, scoring eight times this month. The hottest bat on the team may belong to Jean Segura. He went six for 12 in the series with the Phillies and has hit .344 on the month with a .417 OBP. He also has two RBIs this month while scoring three times.
The Marlins will need some pitching to make a run as well. They are 14th in terms of ERA, 13th in WHIP, and 14th in opponent batting average. They would love to see Sandy Alcantara get back to form, as he sits fourth in WAR among starting pitchers. Alcantara gets the start for the Marlins in this one. He has been better in July. In two starts he has pitched 11.2 innings giving up five runs. Last time out he went 6.2 innings giving up just one run on a solo home run. Still, the Marlins lost the game 4-3 to the Phillies.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Oriole's offense is solid, but not at the top of the American League. They are ninth in runs scored and slugging this year. The Orioles are 14th in batting average, and 13th in on-base percentage.
They are led by Gunnar Henderson and Austin Hays. Both are in the top fifty in the majors in WAR this year at 2.3. Henderson has been slugging well this year, sitting with 13 home runs on the year and 37 RBIs. Henderson should be happy with how he has performed in July. He is hitting .282 with a .364 OBP. He has two home runs and seven RBIs on the month as well. Early in the month, he was striking out a lot but has fixed that as of late.
Hays has been hitting well this year with a .314 average and nine home runs. Hays grabbed a hit in the all-star game and is hitting .250 on the month. He has just two RBIs with the help of a home run this month. Ryan Mountcastle is also rejoining the line-up. He has 40 RBIs and 11 home runs this year. In his only game since June 8th, he went one-for-one with an RBI.
Pitching-wise, the Orioles have been middle of the pack overall. They are 16th in team ERA, 19th in WHIP, and 22nd in opponent batting average. Dean Kremer will start the second half of the season for the Orioles. He is 9-4 this season with a 4.78 ERA. Last time out he was great. He went seven innings giving up two runs, with only one being earned. The Earned run was a home run. Home runs have been an issue for Kremer this year. He has given up 20 home runs in 18 starts this year. He has also given up one in each of his last four starts.
Final Marlins-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The Marlins do have a slight pitching advantage in this game. While Alcantara has not been great this year, he is still a solid pitcher. Kremer has given up plenty of runs this year and struggled with the home run. He had won games based on plenty of run support. In this one, he will get that again but expect the Marlins to hit a home run against him. The best bet for a homer is Jorge Soler. He is a quality slugger who will get another one in this game. The best bet for this game is on the number of runs. Neither pitcher has shown they can limit runs this year, and while the Orioles have a solid bullpen, runs will hit early. With a game that’ll be close, pick the Marlins over the Orioles and lots of runs.
Final Marlins-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-200) and Over 8.5 (-106)