The New York Mets (30-32) visit the Atlanta Braves (37-24) for their series finale. First pitch commences Thursday at 7:20 p.m. ET. Atlanta secured a series win thanks to 6-4 and 7-5 wins in the first two games. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Braves prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Mets-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-126)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+105)
Over: 8.5 (-108)
Under: 8.5 (-112)
How To Watch Mets vs. Braves
TV: MLB Network, SNY, Bally Sports
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET/ 4:20 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Mets-Braves LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 3-7 (Third in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 23-39 (37%)
Over Record: 28-33-1 (46%)
New York's league-leading payroll hasn't done much for their winning percentage this season. After dropping the series' first two games, they now sit two games under .500. This has just been the latest in a month-long slump for New York. After going 14-11 in April, the Mets finished May 14-15. They've now lost five of their first six games in June and are quickly losing ground in the division. While their offense certainly has the talent to do damage, they'll certainly miss Pete Alonso who is out tonight after getting hit by a pitch in yesterday's game. Still, they have the talent to put up runs and with their ace on the bump stand a strong chance of covering as road underdogs.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander (2-3) makes his seventh start of the season for the Mets tonight. Verlander essentially missed two full seasons between 2020-21 and entered last season with low expectations. The result was a storybook season for the future Hall of Famer as he finished with an 18-4 record, a 1.75 ERA, and a staggering 0.83 WHIP. The 40-year-old hasn't had quite the same level of success thus far with the Mets as he holds a 4.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through six starts this year.
That said, he missed the first month of the year and has flashed the same dominant stuff he showed last season. Putting aside two blow-ups, Verlander allowed two or fewer runs in four of his six starts. He is coming off arguably his best outing of the year when he gave up just a single run in 6.0 innings against the Blue Jays.
For as good as Spencer Strider is, Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor will be happy to see him on the mound. Lindor collected five hits in 11 career appearances – walking once as well while striking out just twice. While Lindor has struggled from a batting average perspective this year (.216), he still owns 11 home runs, 42 RBI, and four stolen bases.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (First in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 37-25 (60%)
Over Record: 33-25-3 (57%)
Atlanta got off to a blazing-hot start with a 17-9 record in the first month of the year. Although they slumped somewhat in May (15-14), the Braves have gotten back on track with five wins in their last six games. They've already clinched a series win after taking the first two games of the series and sit in a strong position to sweep and cover tonight. Atlanta gets it done on both sides of the plate – ranking fourth in runs and sixth in team ERA. With their ace on the bump, the Braves present some excellent value as plus-money home favorites.
Budding ace Spencer Strider (6-2) makes his 13th start of the season for the Braves tonight. Strider exploded onto the scene as a rookie last season and has kept the ball rolling this year. In addition to leading the league with 113 strikeouts, Strider owns stellar ratios – a 2.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. After outputting quality starts in 10/32 starts last year, he already has seven in 12 outings this season. Only twice has Strider allowed more than three runs in a start and he's struck out at least seven in all 12 outings. Although he can struggle with walks, he's already proven an elite pitcher despite being just 24 years old. For the year, Strider sits in the 94th percentile in xBA, the 86th percentile in xSLG, and the 97th percentile in whiff rate. As a result, with New York down their best hitter, Strider should feast tonight.
Atlanta features an absolutely loaded lineup that's hit for contact and power all season long. They're led by MVP-favorite Ronald Acuna who owns a .331 AVG, 12 HR, 33 RBI, and 28 SB. He's been on fire over their last five games – collecting 13 total bases and swiping five bags. He's hardly the only Brave hitting well now, as Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, Orlando Arcia, and Ozzie Albies all own batting averages north of .300 over their last five games.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
With no Alonso for the Mets and Strider pitching for the Braves, Atlanta should cruise to an easy cover and series sweep.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+105)
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