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The New York Mets will face the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 2 of the National League Divisional Series on Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. We're covering playoff baseball as we share our NLDS odds series and make a Mets-Phillies Game 2 prediction and pick.
Mets-Phillies Game 2 Projected Starters
Luis Severino vs. Christopher Sanchez
Luis Severino (1-0) with a 4.50 ERA
Last Start: Severino went six innings in his last outing, allowing four runs, three earned, on eight hits, while striking out three and walking two in a wildcard win over the Milwaukee Brewers.
Playoff Stats: Severino has had a rocky past in the postseason, going 2-4 with a 5.07 ERA over 12 games throughout his career.
Stats vs. Phillies: Severino has done well against the Phillies in his career, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA over three games.
Last Start: Sanchez ended the regular season by going 4 2/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs, allowing four runs, three earned, on five hits while striking out four and walking one.
Stats vs. Mets: Sanchez has had mixed results against the Mets, going 2-2 with a 3.62 ERA over nine games against the Mets throughout his career.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Mets-Phillies Game 2 Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-176)
Moneyline: +124
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -146
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How to Watch Mets vs. Phillies Game 2
Time: 1:08 PM ET/10:08 AM PT
TV: FS1
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets struggled to get anything going against Zack Wheeler, managing just one hit over seven innings. Somehow, they swung and missed on 30 Wheeler pitches, a playoff record in the statcast era.
The Mets must make contact. Usually, they are a power team that smashes the baseball out of the park. But the Mets have won all their playoff games by stringing together hits, which is out of character for them. Regardless, it is working. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor must lead the charge and find a way to clobber the baseball. Also, others in the lineup must avoid whiffing on pitches.
Severino has not had much success in the postseason, going 2-4 with a 5.07 ERA over 12 playoff games throughout his vast career. Now, he will face one of the best lineups in baseball, and the challenge will be to avoid making a mistake down the heart of the plate.
The Mets will cover the spread if they can string together some hits and then blast one out of the park. Then, they need another good pitching performance from their bullpen.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies started things off hot in Game 1 when Kyle Shwarber blasted a home run instantaneously in Game 1, and it seemed like they might tack on a few more. Then, Kodai Senga settled down and retired the rest of his hitters. The Phillies then struggled to solve David Peterson, who even got Bryce Harper to chase a few bad pitches, including a fastball just out of the zone for a critical strikeout in the fifth inning.
Harper had mixed results in Game 1 but could not capitalize on all his chances. Regardless, he enters this game as one of the most dangerous hitters in the lineup. Harper is also 2 for 5 with two home runs and three RBIs in his career against Severino. Thus, he has established a good rapport against Severino and could definitely go yard.
Schwarber got the scoring going for the Phillies. Yet, he is 3 for 10 with two doubles but no home run in his career against Severino. J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos are a combined 0 for 6 against Severino. Conversely, Trea Turner is 1 for 5 with a home run against Severino in his career.
Sanchez has not had much playoff experience. Overall, he is 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA in one postseason appearance throughout his career. Sanchez must do well because this bullpen cannot be trusted, especially after Jeff Hoffman blew a tight lead in the eighth inning in Game 1. They had the Mets pinned on 0-2 several times and could not finish them off.
Final Mets-Phillies Game 2 Prediction & Pick
The Mets were 86-79 against the run line this season, while the Phillies were 80-82 against the odds. Moreover, the Mets were 45-38 against the run line on the road this season, while the Phillies were 38-42 against the odds at home. The Mets were 29-23 against the run line against their division, while the Phillies were 24-28 against the odds. The Mets are 4-1 against the run line in these MLB playoffs, while the Phillies are 0-1 against the odds.
The Mets are the underdogs in our NLDS odds, yet they continue overcoming adversity. The Phillies are also under more pressure after their collapse in Game 1, and they will have more motivation to win this game with authority.
Final Mets-Phillies Game 2 Prediction & Pick: Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+146)
