Paul Skenes heads to the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates as they face the New York Mets. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Pirates prediction and pick.

Mets-Pirates Projected Starters 

Luis Severino vs. Paul Skenes

Luis Severino (5-2) with a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Last Start:  Severino went seven innings in his previous start, giving up eight hits, a walk, and a home run. Four runs would score against him as he took the no-decision in a loss to the Astros.

2024 Road Splits: In seven starts on the road, Severino is 2-1 with a 4.19 ERA and an opponent batting average of .225.

Paul Sekens (4-0) with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP.

Last Start: Skenes went six innings last time out, giving up six hits and two walks. He would also give up a solo home run, the only run scored against him. Still, he would not get the win, as the Braves beat the Pirates in ten innings.

2024 Home Splits: In five starts at home, Skenes is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and an opponent batting average of just .273.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Mets-Pirates Odds

New York Mets: +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline: +108

Pittsburgh Pirates: -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline:  -126

Over: 7.5 (-122)

Under: 7.5 (+100)

How to Watch Mets vs. Pirates

Time:  6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT

TV: SNY/SNP

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Mets are eighth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting ninth in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging. Brandon Nimmo has been solid this year. He is hitting .248 this year with a .369 on-base percentage. He has 13 home runs, and 52 RBIs while scoring 54 times. Pete Alonso continues to slug well. He is hitting .244 on the year with a .339 on-base percentage. He has 18 home runs this year with 48 RBIs and 48 runs scored. Francisco Lindor rounds out the best bats of the year. He is hitting .249 this year with a .312 on-base percentage. He has 15 home runs, with 43 RBIs plus 15 stolen bases and 57 runs scored.

Mark Vientos has been solid in the last week. He is hitting .333 in the last week, with two home runs and seven RBIs. He has also scored five times. Brandon Nimmo has also had a solid week. He is hitting .353 but has a .500 on-base percentage. He has a home run, six RBIs, and four runs scored in the last week. Pete Alonso rounds out the top bats on the week. He is hitting .280 in the last week with two home runs, RBIS and three runs scored.

Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Pirates are 25th in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 24th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging. Bryan Reynolds has led the way this year. He is hitting .273 on the year while getting on base at a .339 rate. Reynolds has 13 home runs and 47 RBIs while scoring 35 times on the year. Oneil Cruz has also been solid this year. He is hitting .240 on the year with a .295 on-base percentage. He has 12 home runs and 37 RBIs while scoring 36 times. Rounding out the top bats on the year with Connor Joe. Joe is hitting .247 on the year with a .339 on-base percentage. He has seven home runs, 28 RBIS, and 38 runs scored.

Rowdy Tellez has been sold in the last week. He is hitting .357 in the last week.  He has two home runs and three RBIs while scoring four times in the last week. Jack Suwinski is also hitting well. He is hitting .250 in the last week with a home run and three RBIs while scoring twice. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been the most consistent bat in nthe lineup, hitting .400 in the last week. He has stolen two bases, and driven in two, but has not scored a run.

Current Pirates have 45 career at-bats against Luis Severino. They have hit .244 against him with a .320 on-base percentage. Michael A. Taylor has the most success, going two for two with a home run. Bryan Reynolds has also been solid against Severino. He is three for seven with a double, a walk, and an RBI.

Final Mets-Pirates Prediction & Pick

While Luis Severino has been solid this year, he has not been at the same level of dominance as Paul Skenes. The Pirates will struggle to put up runs though, and barring a Mets late-game barrage against the bullpen, this will remain a tight and low-scoring game throughout. Taking the Pirates to win has a risk because of their bullpen, so taking a play on the total is the best move. Take the under in this one.

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Final Mets-Rays Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)