Mexico and Ecuador expected to play this game in a battle for first place with their spots in the knockout stage already guaranteed. However, Venezuela’s Cinderella run through this group has Mexico and Ecuador with identical 1-0-1 records and in a must-win game to see the playoffs. Venezuela is already guaranteed a spot in the knockout stage but could fall to second in the table if they lose to Jamaica. The winner of this game will likely get second and be looking at a date with Argentina in the quarterfinals. It is time to continue our Copa America odds series with a Mexico-Ecuador prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Venezuela were +250 underdogs when they took on Mexico in each team’s second game. Mexico couldn’t find the back of the net on Rafael Romo, then a penalty kick goal by Salomon Rondon put Venezuela ahead 1-0 with 33 minutes remaining. Mexico got an opportunity for a penalty kick in the 87th minute but failed to get it past Romo. The loss puts Mexico in an uncomfortable position, as they will miss the knockout stage with a loss against a good Ecuador team.

Ecuador dropped their first game of the tournament after playing a majority of the game with ten men. It seemed like a good chance that they’d make Jamaica pay for the rough open to their tournament, and they did that with a 3-1 win. Ecuador now gets their captain back for a crucial match against Mexico, and are considered the favorites to get their second win and advance to the playoffs.

Here are the 2024 Copa America odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Copa America Odds: Mexico-Ecuador Odds

Mexico: +175

Ecuador: +170

Draw: +210

Over 2.5 goals: +135

Under 2.5 goals: -180

How to Watch Mexico vs. Ecuador

Time: 8 PM ET/5 PM PT

TV: TSN, FOX

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Mexico Will Win

Mexico allowed just one shot on goal in their match against Ecuador, with Ecuador’s second shot coming on a penalty kick that found the back of the net. Mexico had 18 shot attempts and five shots on goal in the match, making it hard to believe that they couldn’t find the equalizer and a winner. They can’t possibly get clean-sheeted again, and they’ll be pressing harder knowing they’ll likely need a victory to advance, as a draw would end up in Ecuador’s favor.

The only concern with this bet is if Ecuador is content to advance with a draw and parks the bus to fight for a tie.

Why Ecuador Will Win

Mexico lost their captain in the opening match, and it seemed like a break before the Venezuela game would help them re-group and get prepared. However, Mexico’s attack looked sloppy without Edson Alvarez, leading Venezuela to secure the clean sheet.

Ecuador also played their second match without their captain but dominated Jamaica for a 3-1 win in honor of their leading man. They’ll get him back in this game which should give Ecuador the advantage they need over Mexico.

Final Mexico-Ecuador Prediction & Pick

Mexico’s offense has been sputtering all tournament, scoring just one goal over their first two games. The loss of their captain didn’t make it any easier, but the stats tell a different story for their match against Venezuela. Mexico out-possessed Venezuela 61-39, out-chanced them 18-10, and out-shot them 5-2. The only difference in the game was Ecuador scoring on their penalty kick and Mexico failing on theirs. If Mexico puts in this same attacking effort against Ecuador, they should be able to steal a win and avoid the disaster of not making the knockout stage.

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Final Mexico-Ecuador Prediction & Pick: Mexico ML (+175)