Miami Heat Over/Under Win Total Prediction

So close, but no cigar! Indeed, “close” is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades as the Miami Heat fell short in the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons. Can Miami showcase their resiliency and bounce back in a big way during the 2023-2024 regular season en route to winning at least 46 games?

No one expected that much from the Miami Heat entering last year's postseason, but they exceeded expectations in the most magical way possible. In the blink of an eye, Erik Spoelstra's squad shocked the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the opening round of the postseason and then overwhelmed the New York Knicks in the quarterfinals. Before long, Miami baffled Boston in an all-time great series which eventually reached seven games before Miami punched their ticket to the NBA Finals for the fourth time in the past decade. Even though their championship dreams fell short at the hands of the Denver Nuggets, there is no denying that the Heat franchise is a well-oiled machine and has boasted a winning culture for quite some time now.\

Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

NBA Odds: Miami Heat Over/Under Odds

45.5 Wins (-110)

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Why the Heat Will Win 45.5 Games

Do Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo ring a bell? All jokes aside, this dynamic duo was a gigantic reason why the Heat were able to go on such a historic run in the postseason as Miami became the first eight-seed since the 1999 New York Knicks to reach the NBA Finals. Even though they proved to be no match for the Denver Nuggets, this Heat squad is ready to run things back with much of the same core.

All in all, the biggest reason why the Heat are destined to win 46 games will be thanks to the fully healthy return of Tyler Herro. Only 23 years old, Herro has been an invaluable piece within this roster over the past couple of years and there's no doubt Miami took a hit in the postseason when he went down with a broken hand in the first round. Alas, expect Herro to take another step in his game after he led all of the NBA with the top free-throw shooting percentage en route to averaging a healthy 20.7 points per game.

Most importantly, head coach Erik Spoelstra has quietly but surely made a name for himself over the years. Entering his 16th season as the main man in Miami, Spoelstra was thrusted into the spotlight rather swiftly when LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh became a super-team. Since then, he has spent no time looking back. Believe it or not, the 52-year-old head coach has won at least 46 games seven times during his tenure and could very well win his team to win that much again. Simply put, there aren't many coaches in the league as competent than Spolestra and that will serve the Heat extremely well.

Why the Heat Won't Win 45.5 Games

At first glance, Miami is returning a good bulk of their starting lineup, but their depth certainly took a hit during the offseason as Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, and even big man Cody Seller signed elsewhere. Above all else, the Heat may find themselves relying heavily on their starting lineup with the absences of those previously mentioned, and after only adding Josh Richardson and Thomas Bryant in free agency, it is fair to believe that there is some cause for concern.

Like all teams who go on deep runs to the NBA Finals, the offseason is extremely shorter than 28 other NBA squads which could end up being harmful to Miami. With the brief offseason, Miami has to be that much more careful with how they assign minutes to their players, as one devastating injury could squash any hope that the Heat have for this season. Will Miami run out of gas later in the year? Stay tuned.

In general, Miami is depending heavily on guys like Caleb Martin and Tyler Herro to be humongous parts of this team, and if those expectations don't end up coming in to fruition, then the Heat could be in big trouble.

Final Miami Heat Over/Under Win Total Prediction

On paper, this Heat team may have lost some big-time contributors from last year's squad, but fear not Miami fans and bettors; this team should be just fine. As long as the Heat stay healthy, winning at least 46 games will be a walk in the park and an overall improvement from last season's win total.