It took just two conference tournament championship games for a possible bid-thief to emerge this year. The Drake Bulldogs entered the Missouri Valley Tournament with a decent at-large case but one that was not quite good enough to put them in the field of 68. The MVC title game saw Drake face off against and defeat an Indiana State team hanging onto an at-large bid. The Bulldogs are in, and the Sycamores face a long wait until Selection Sunday.

For top mid-major teams, it is common to toe the line between auto-bid and at-large status — especially when one loss against a weak conference opponent can be ruinous. Two teams — Drake and James Madison —  played their way off the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament by winning their leagues' auto-bids. With so much still to play for during Championship Week, we undertake the difficult task of evaluating the at-large status of mid-major teams like Indiana State and Princeton. This is Mid-Major Bubble Watch.

Locks

Nothing these teams do can knock them out of the NCAA Tournament field.

San Diego State, Dayton, Saint Mary's Boise State, Gonzaga, Utah State, Nevada

Earned automatic bids

No sweat for these teams heading into Selection Sunday

Drake, James Madison

Should be in

Only need to avert disaster.

Colorado State

NET: 36 (-1)

KenPom: 36 (-1)

Quad I Record: 5-7

Good Wins: Creighton (N), New Mexico (H), San Diego State (H), Boise State (H), Colorado (H), Utah State (H)

Bad Losses: Wyoming (A)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 56.9% (-1.7)

Despite similar metrics to New Mexico, Colorado State's top wins are better and worse losses not as bad as those of UNM. Non-con wins over Creighton and Colorado have also given CSU the breathing room to endure a recent three-game losing streak. The Rams avoided a bad loss against Air Force on the final day of the season — do so again in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament, and Colorado State is comfortably in.

Florida Atlantic

NET: 34 (—)

KenPom: 37 (+2)

Quad I Record: 2-3

Good Wins: Arizona (N), Texas A&M (N), Butler (N)

Bad Losses: Bryant (H), Florida Gulf Coast (H)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 78.7% (+6.4)

Potential disaster came early and often for a volatile FAU team this season. The Owls lost at home to Bryant in the second week of the season then dropped a home contest to FGCU before the end of December. In between those forgettable defeats were wins over Arizona, Texas A&M, and Butler.

While still showing that unpredictability, FAU has managed to avoid any bad losses since then but has also failed to pick up a Quad I win. The Owls can be found as an at-large team in all 114 Bracket Matrix projections — a comfortable position to be in ahead of Selection Sunday.

Toeing the line

Could go either way.

New Mexico

NET: 28 (-2)

KenPom: 34 (+2)

Quad I Record: 2-7

Good Wins: San Diego State (H), Nevada (A), Utah State (H), Nevada (H), Colorado State (H)

Bad Losses: Air Force (H)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 35.9% (-16.7)

The Lobos were a win or two away from lock status a few weeks ago, but six losses in their last 10 games — including an ugly home defeat to Air Force — puts New Mexico firmly on the bubble. Richard Pitino had a golden chance to elevate his team into Should Be In status with a road win over conference leaders Utah State on Saturday. Instead, a two-point loss in a game that was rarely more than one possession in margin temporarily drops New Mexico to the wrong side of the bubble.

Two factors work in the Lobos' favor though. First, is their NET Ranking. The lowest NET team to miss the NCAA Tournament was #33 North Carolina State back in 2019 — the NET's inaugural season. The Lobos are currently 28th. They also play in the M0untain West, where quality games are abundant. If UNM can avoid a slip-up against Air Force, it will have a crucial quarterfinal matchup against Boise State in a must-win game. Lose, and a team with a 2-8 record in Quad I games will need to hope that the Selection Committee gives significant weight to its gaudy NET Ranking.

Indiana State

NET: 29 (+1)

KenPom: 43 (+3)

Quad I Record: 1-4

Good Wins: Bradley (A), Drake (H), Bradley (H)

Bad Losses: Illinois State (H)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 48.6% (-0.9)

If the Missouri Valley Conference wanted to draw up the ideal Arch Madness scenario for a two-bid league, then Indiana State and Drake certainly abided. ISU cruised through its two opening games in the conference tourney while Drake earned a hard-fought Quad II win over Bradley to set up the third faceoff of the season between the Sycamores and the Bulldogs.

With Indiana State on the right side of the bubble and Drake on the outside looking in, the #2 seed Bulldogs pulled off the win to earn the auto-bid, while ISU ensured it was a close game. The Sycamores now appear as the last team in for many brackets, earning an at-large slot in 79 of 114 Bracket Matrix projections. As with New Mexico, Indiana State will rely on its impressive NET Ranking and hope the committee can overlook a weak schedule that includes just one Quad I victory.

Barely alive

Miracles happen, and these teams need one.

UNLV

NET: 75 (+1)

KenPom: 72 (+3)

Quad I Record: 5-3

Good Wins: Creighton (N), New Mexico (H), Boise State (A), New Mexico (A), San Diego State (H)

Bad Losses: Southern (H), Loyola Marymount (H), Air Force (H)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 7.0% (+0.8)

Despite a season-ending loss at Nevada, UNLV continues to inch up the rankings with one of the strangest resumes you'll ever see. Most bubble teams would die for a win over Creighton, Boise State, or San Diego State — as UNLV has. The Runnin' Rebels also have home losses to Southern and Air Force, the latter a 32-point home defeat.

But something clicked for UNLV after that embarrassing Air Force loss. The team has taken down 10 of its last 12 Mountain West foes, helping Kevin Kruger's team finish fourth in the MWC. With a conference tournament opener against San Diego State and a likely matchup against Utah if UNLV can advance, don't count out these Runnin' Rebels just yet.

Princeton

NET: 48 (+3)

KenPom: 57 (+6)

Quad I Record: 0-0

Good Wins: Rutgers (N)

Bad Losses: None

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 21.9% (+10.8)

After reaching the Sweet Sixteen a year ago, Mitch Henderson's team has not missed a beat. Princeton took the initiative and scheduled seven non-conference road games, winning six to begin Ivy League play at 15-1. Unfortunately, a non-con strength of schedule ranked 105th by KenPom did not include any Quad I games, nor did a strong Ivy League this year.

The Tigers closed the year with a resounding win over Penn, scoring 105 points on 68 possessions. The victory was a good bump for Princeton's metrics, moving the team into the top 50 in the NET ahead of the Ivy League Tournament. As with other teams on this list, the 24-3 Tigers did what they could, but a lack of quality wins is likely too much to overlook.

Grand Canyon

NET: 53 (+3)

KenPom: 55 (+4)

Quad I Record: 1-1

Good Wins: San Diego State (H), San Francisco (N)

Bad Losses: Abilene Christian (A)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 4.4% (+0.6)

When Grand Canyon opened the year at 17-1 with wins over San Diego State and San Francisco, the Lopes firmly positioned themselves on the bubble assuming they avoided any bad slip-ups during the conference slate. Unforunately for GCU, it lost three times against WAC foes, wiping out the goodwill it gained earlier in the season.

The bright side for the Lopes: two of its “bad losses” at Seattle and at Tarleton State are hanging onto Quad II status, giving GCU only the one true bad lass at Abilene Christian (Q3). But it also means that Grand Canyon lost its only two Quad II opportunities in WAC play.

With a similar resume to other mid-major bubble teams but slightly worse losses, it is difficult to see GCU getting an at-large nod — especially with only Quad III and IV games available in the WAC Tournament.

Memphis

NET: 69 (+1)

KenPom: 71 (—)

Quad I Record: 2-2

Good Wins: Texas A&M (A), Clemson (H), Virginia (H)

Bad Losses: Rice (H), Tulane (A)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 2.0% (-1.8)

Not even two months ago, Memphis was the 10th-ranked team in the AP Poll. Then came an ugly four-game losing streak punctuated by a Quad IV home loss to Rice. Penny Hardaway's team has been better since but dropped a pair of potential needle-moving games against North Texas and SMU.

The Tigers closed the season with a must-win game at FAU. Memphis could not pull out the win, making its slim at-large hopes even slimmer. A strong non-conference showing keeps Memphis alive for now, but even winning out until the AAC Championship does not move the needle much for the Tigers.

McNeese State

NET: 58 (—)

KenPom: 66 (—)

Quad I Record: 0-0

Good Wins: None

Bad Losses: Southeastern Louisiana (A)

T-Ranketology At-Large Odds: 2.2% (-0.2)

Will Wade has done nothing but win games this year at McNeese State. The Cowboys are 28-3 and have proven to be head and shoulders above the rest of the Southland Conference. The issue is that of McNeese's 18 Southland games, 16 were Quad IV and two were Quad III. Non-conference road wins over VCU, UAB, and Michigan are far less impressive than initially believed, leaving McNeese on the wrong side of the Bubble Watch.

Dropped out

Late-season losses removed these teams from consideration.

South Florida, Richmond