Mike Trout is 32 years old now and playing another season with the Los Angeles Angels. We're here to share our MLB odds series and make a Mike Trout Over Under Regular Season Home Runs total prediction and pick for the 2024 season.
Trout will hope to bounce back after hitting just 18 home runs over 82 games and 308 at-bats. As you have guessed, health was an issue again for Trout as he missed half the season with a fractured hamate bone on his left wrist, which he suffered during a game with the San Diego Padres on July 3. Now, he will try and bounce back.
Let's look at the numbers for Trout over the last few seasons. While his 2023 campaign was cut short, he did blast 40 home runs over 119 games and 438 at-bats in 2022. His 2021 season was bad, as he managed just eight home runs over 36 games in another injury-plagued season. His 2020 season produced 17 home runs over 53 games and 199 at-bats. Amazingly, he has not played like the five-tool player he was since the 2019 season when he hit 45 home runs over 134 games and 470 at-bats.
Trout had the luxury of hitting ahead or behind Shohei Ohtani on most days. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case. Ohtani signed a 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers this past offseason. Now, it means that Trout will likely hit behind Luis Rengifo and ahead of Brandon Drury. Neither of those options is appealing. With all that said, let's take a look at his 2024 season and predict how he will do.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mike Trout Regular Season Home Runs Odds
Over 30.5 Home Runs: -113
Under 30.5 Home Runs: -113
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Why Mike Trout Will Hit 30.5 Home Runs
Trout will be determined to stay healthy. Remember, he is still dangerous when he can avoid injury. His 2022 season was proof of that. And Trout is not past his prime yet. Officially, he is still technically in his prime. You also need to consider that the Angels will have some new weapons in their lineup. We saw what Logan O'Hoppe could have done last season in limited action. Now, imagine what he can do over a full season. Nolan Schanuel is also their top pick from last season, and he got off to an explosive start.
But the talent is also still there for Trout. Yes, his slugging percentage took a tip from .630 in 2022 to 4.90 in 2023. But he still clobbered 66.8 percent of the fastballs he saw. Trout still gets a good enough spin off the bat that makes him dangerous. Also, consider the fact that he will still play away games in Texas and Seattle, two places where he has had great success.
Trout will hit 30.5 home runs because there will be some new weapons in the lineup that might help him. Likewise, he still has the ability to clobber any fastball. If he can get good counts, he will hit anything.
Why Mike Trout Won't Hit 30.5 Home Runs
Trout has only played 44 percent of the possible games over the last four seasons. That is the single biggest reason why Trout will fail. Unfortunately, the man cannot stay healthy. Trout is the Ken Griffey Jr. of our generation. To compare, Griffey Jr. also endured a stretch like this. In fact, he hit just eight home runs in his age-32 season before hitting 13 and 20 in the following two seasons, respectively.
Trout has also lost a lot of barrel percentage. For reference, his barrel percentage dropped from 19.7 in 2022 to 16.4 last season. Trout also cannot hit anything that is not a fastball. Unfortunately, he snagged just 26.2 percent of breaking balls and 7.1 percent of offspeed pitches. Trout only had 33 barrels, which placed him 97th in the majors. Additionally, his maximum home run distance was 461, which dropped to 26th.
But losing Ohtani will be the biggest blow to Trout. Here, you had a guy who was one of the best players of our generation hitting behind Trout. Opponents would actually throw good pitches to Trout because they didn't want to face Ohtani with a man on base. Now, pitchers won't be as tentative to pitch around Trout. No one fears Brandon Drury or Anthony Rendon.
Trout will not hit 30.5 home runs because he cannot stay healthy enough to do so. Likewise, there is no one else in the lineup that is intimidating enough to help Trout get good pitches.
Final Mike Trout Over/Under Regular Season Home Runs
It's going to be another bad season for the Angels. Ultimately, Trout will be just as bad with them. He may hit 25-29 home runs. However, 30 does not seem possible with his history of ailments.
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Final Mike Trout Over/Under Regular Season Home Runs:
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