The Houston Astros will take on the Kansas City Royals on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make an Astros-Royals prediction and pick.
These teams have had completely opposite seasons. The Astros have unsurprisingly been one of the best teams in all of baseball, earning themselves a 33-18 record on the season. That mark is good for first place in the AL West, as the next closest competitor trails Houston by 6.5 games. The Royals, on the other hand, are far from leading anyone. Kansas City has been absolutely terrible, as shown by their 16-33 record. Regardless of the records at play, this should be an entertaining matchup, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Astros-Royals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Royals Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+125)
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-150)
Over: 9 (+100)
Under: 9 (-122)
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Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
The Astros will deploy pitcher Jose Urquidy in this game. Urquidy has struggled to begin the season, but he has an absolute dream matchup in this game. The Royals have been one of the worst offenses in all of baseball, ranking in the bottom ten in OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage while ranking 18th in batting average. Over their last three games, Kansas City has put up a whopping nine runs. They've been awful at the plate, and it's unlikely that that changes, even against a guy like Urquidy.
Playing on the road won't be terrible for this Astros lineup. Houston has had slightly more offensive success when they play away from home, earning a higher batting average, OPS, and slugging percentage outside of Minute Maid Park. The Royals offense has opposite numbers, as they hit slightly worse when they play in Kauffman Stadium. Overall, the Astros should handle this road meeting well.
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
While the Astros do have more offensive success on the road, their pitching should struggle. Urquidy already has poor numbers on the season, but they get exponentially worse when he pitches on the road. The righty's overall ERA is 4.80, but that skyrockets to 7.09 when he plays on the road. Urquidy also allows his opponents to hit an insane .368 against him when he plays away from home. Even a terrible offense like Kansas City's should fare pretty well against Urquidy, as those are legitimately some of the worst numbers in the entire MLB.
The Royals don't have the same pitching problems the Astros do here. Kansas City will send out Brady Singer to make the start, something that's worked out well for them in the past. Singer has posted a 2.49 ERA and a .99 WHIP over six appearances this season, and he's yet to be saddled with a loss. His numbers also improve when he plays at home, as his ERA drops to 2.12 in Kauffman Stadium. He also only gives up a .226 batting average to opponents at home. Overall, this looks like a good spot for Singer to continue his winning ways.
Final Astros-Royals Prediction & Pick
Neither side of the spread looks good. The odds make it hard to confidently pick the Astros, but picking the Royals to cover just doesn't seem right against one of the best teams in the MLB. Instead, the under is the best pick on the board. Kansas City should hit Urquidy, but they shouldn't put up huge numbers. Houston will do their fair share of damage over the course of the game, but overall, it should remain a low-scoring affair.
Final Astros-Royals Prediction & Pick: Under 9 (-122)
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