The Seattle Mariners and the San Diego Padres will meet for an Independence Day showdown at Petco Park on Monday afternoon. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Mariners-Padres prediction and pick.
The Mariners took three of four games from the Oakland Athletics at home. Also, the Mariners are 10-3 over their previous 13 games as they have risen their record to 39-42 and second place in the AL West. Seattle is 19-22 on the road in 2022 and 11-4 over their past 15 road games.
The Padres lost three of four to the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. San Diego is 3-7 over a 10-game stretch and 6-5 over its last 11 home games. Subsequently, the Padres hold a 21-16 record at Petco Park. The Mariners lead the all-time head-to-head series 60-59, but the Padres are 29-22 since 2010.
The Mariners will go with Chris Flexen on the mound. Flexen is 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA in 15 starts. Consequently, he went 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA in six starts in June. Flexen is also 1-5 with a 4.71 ERA in eight starts on the road. Additionally, he is 0-2 with a 21.21 ERA in starts against the Padres, and none of his starts have gone past three innings.
The Padres are going with Sean Manaea on the hill. Manaea is 3-3 with a 3.92 EEA in 2022. Also, he went 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA through five starts in June. Manaea went six innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on three hits. He is 8-6 with a 3.46 ERA in 15 starts against the Mariners. Additionally, he went 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA in five home starts against Seattle. Manaea is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in six starts at Petco Park in 2022.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Padres odds:
MLB odds: Mariners-Padres Odds
Mariners: +1.5 (-140)
Padres: -1.5 (+116)
Over: 8 (-102)
Under: 8 (-120)
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Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread
The Mariners have three hitters that could change the outcome of the game. Ty France, Julio Rodriguez, and Jesse Winker all have the pop to change the direction.
France is batting .316 with 10 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 32 runs scored in 2022. Likewise, he is batting .278 with four home runs, 14 RBIs, and 13 runs scored through 38 road games. France has a .250 career average against the Padres, going 3 for 12 during a 2020 series with San Diego. Rodriguez is batting .277 with 14 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 45 runs scored. Also, he is batting .267 with seven home runs, 17 RBIs, and 21 runs scored through 40 road games. Winker is clipping .226 with six home runs, 33 RBIs, and 26 runs scored. Likewise, he is batting .248 with four home runs, 21 RBIs, and 12 runs scored through 41 road games. Winker is batting .242 in his career against the Padres with three home runs, six RBIs, and nine runs. Also, he is batting .244 with two home runs and four RBIs through 11 games at Petco Park.
The Mariners will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of Flexen. Additionally, France, Rodriguez, and Winker all must produce at the plate to give the Mariners a fighting chance.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are still without Fernando Tatis Jr. but did get Manny Machado back this past weekend. San Diego also has Eric Hosmer on their team.
Machado is batting .320 with 12 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 49 runs scored in 2022. Alternatively, he is even better at home. batting .347 with six home runs, 16 RBIs, and 18 runs scored through 28 games at Petco Park. Machado is batting .303 with 13 home runs, 29 RBIs, and 30 runs scored through 50 career games against the Mariners.
Hosmer is batting .277 with six home runs, 33 RBIs, and 28 runs scored through 72 games in 2022. Likewise, he is batting .306 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and 11 runs scored through 33 home games. Hosmer is batting .262 with six home runs, 30 RBIs, and 31 runs scored through 61 games against the Mariners. He struggled in the four-game series against the Dodgers, batting .200 with an RBI and a run scored while playing three games. Hosmer must pick it up.
The Padres will cover the spread if Manaea gives them a productive start. Additionally, San Diego must find its offense and that includes getting work from Machado and Hosmer. Those two are the keys to the offense until Tatis returns, and will both need to produce.
Final Mariners-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Mariners and Padres will celebrate the fourth of July with a special start time, and both will look to secure the victory. However, the Padres are the better team despite their slump. San Diego has managed to successfully stay in the playoff race despite not having Tatis in the lineup, and also losing Machado for a few weeks. Manaea is a solid pitcher and the Padres can generate just enough offense to cover the spread.
Final Mariners-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres: -1.5 (+116)
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