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MLB Odds: Marlins vs. Astros prediction, odds and pick – 6/11/2022

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Marlins, Astros, MLB

The Miami Marlins look to win their fifth straight game as they face the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on Saturday. It’s time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Marlins-Astros prediction and pick.

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The Marlins defeated the Astros 7-4 on Friday. They got off the ground running when Jazz Chisholm Jr. crushed a solo home run to deep right. it was his 11th in 2022 and put the Marlins on the board. Later, Jesus Aguilar crushed a solo home run to left field. It was the 100th home run of his career. The Astros responded when Michael Brantley smashed a solo shot into the bullpen to cut the deficit to 2-1. 

Chisholm delivered again in the fifth by clobbering a two-run bomb to right-center. It was the second of the night for Chisholm, and it gave the Marlins a 4-1 lead. Then, Aguilar clobbered a two-run home run into the seats to make it 6-1. The deficit was too much to overcome as the Marlins won 7-4.

Both teams had a long bullpen day as the starters each lasted 4 1/3 innings. The Marlins relievers allowed two earned runs on five hits, while the Astros’ bullpen allowed two earned runs on two hits. The Marlins are 26-30 and fourth in the NL East, while the Astros are 36-22 and first in the AL West.  

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Astros odds:

MLB odds: Marlins-Astros Odds

Marlins: +1.5 (+104)

Astros: -1.5 (-125)

Over: 8.5 (-104)

Under: 8.5 (-118)

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Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread

The Marlins will go with Braxton Garrett on the hill today. Garrett is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA. He lasted just 3 1/3 innings in his first outing of the season, allowing four earned runs on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk. The key for Garrett is to keep his pitches down and find some consistency. 

The Marlins continue to be a middling offense. They rank 11th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage, 15th in runs scored, 13th in home runs, and 11th in slugging percentage. Chisholm and Aguilar were the stars last night, yet both have produced inconsistent results in 2022. Chisholm is hitting .259 with 12 home runs and 40 RBIs. Likewise, Aguilar is batting .247 with eight home runs and 26 RBIs. Garrett Cooper has been their most consistent player, batting .315 with four home runs and 27 RBIs. 

The Marlins nearly chucked the game away thanks to their bullpen. They allowed a solo home run to Kyle Tucker in the seventh but held their ground after. The Marlins will cover the spread if Garrett can perform significantly better. Likewise, Miami needs Chisholm, Aguilar, and Cooper to produce. The bullpen is tired after last night and could use more rest.  

Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread

The Astros will roll with Framber Valdez on the hill. Valdez has quietly become one of the best pitchers on the Astros and in the AL. He is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA. He went six innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs on four hits with five strikeouts and three walks. Valdez does have a weakness and he tends to allow free bases. He has issued six walks over three games. That has to change for the Astros to cover the spread and the bullpen to get some rest. Alternatively, he has still tossed six innings or more in eight straight contests. Additionally, it was only two weeks ago that he threw a complete game. Valdez can wiggle out of danger and keep the Astros ahead. 

Valdez has the support of an offense that is still finding its way. The Astros rank 21st in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, and 22nd in runs scored. Alternatively, they are fourth in home runs and eighth in slugging percentage. When the Astros score, it usually is by the long ball. They produced two home runs in last night’s game, but they were both solo shots. Houston must find ways to generate more runners on the base paths and bring them home. They left an astonishing 11 runners on base. 

The Astros will cover the spread if Valdez continues his momentum and tosses another quality start. He must avoid walks and putting the Marlins in scoring positions. Likewise, the Astros have to capitalize on their scoring chances. 

Final Marlins-Astros Prediction & Pick

Valdez has pitched amazingly throughout the season. Thus, he is the more trustworthy pitcher to back in this contest. The Marlins are also not a very good team, and the Astros are one of the best. Expect Valdez to toss another quality start and the offense to muster more than four runs. 

Final Marlins-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5 (-125)