The Oakland Athletics are set to host the Miami Marlins today in the final matchup of a three-game set at RingCentral Coliseum. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Marlins-Athletics prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Today’s game features a pair of MLB bottom feeders looking to finish out the season strong and head into 2023 on a positive note. The Marlins sit in fourth place in the National League East at 54-69, with four wins in their last 10 games. The Athletics, meanwhile, are dead last in the American League West at 45-78. They also have lost six of their last 10 contests.
It’s been all Miami through the first two games of the first and only series between the teams this year. The Marlins shut out Oakland 3-0 in game one and nearly blanked their opponent again yesterday before the Athletics plated three runs in the bottom of the ninth to make it 5-3.
Here are the Marlins-Athletics MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Athletics Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+146) ML: -124
Oakland Athletics: +1.5 (-176) ML: +106
Over: 7 (+100)
Under: 7 (-122)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The first place to look when searching for a reason to wager on the Marlins is recent performance, having shutout their opponent in the first 17 innings of the series, with the only runs allowed coming when they decided to send an unreliable Cole Sulser to the mound with a five-run lead in the ninth. Designated hitter/outfielder Brian Anderson has been particularly solid in the series, going 2 of 6 at the plate with three walks, three runs scored, and a pair of RBI.
Projected starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo seems to provide optimism for Miami on the mound, as well. The 24-year-old left-hander is having the best season of his pro career, posting a 3.44 ERA with a .181 opponent’s batting average and 1.05 WHIP through 10 starts in 2022. He’s also averaging 11.18 strikeouts per nine innings, and his production has only picked up as of late. He had a rough outing against the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves on Aug. 13, but in his other three starts this month he allowed a total of just nine hits and three earned runs in 18 1/3 innings pitched. Neither team has been all that impressive in terms of relief pitching this season, but Miami has a slight edge in this department, posting a 4.00 bullpen ERA, which is 12 points lower than the Athletics.
The Marlins have been among the worst offensive teams in baseball during the second half of the season, but there have been some players that have shown potential in recent weeks. Three players — Anderson, first baseman Jesus Aguilar, and outfielder JJ Bleday — have a pair of home runs each over the past 15 days, while five individuals — Aguilar, Anderson, Bleday, Lewin Diaz, and Jacob Stallings — recording at least four RBI. Despite posting a .186 batting average during this stretch, Bleday has a team-high 10 walks and six runs scored. Stallings has only appeared in eight games over the last two weeks, but his .393/.452/.536 slash line in this span spurs optimism.
Why The Athletics Could Cover The Spread
Starting pitching seems to be a strong point for Oakland as well, with projected starter Cole Irvin also having the best year of his pro career. Irvin has a 3.33 ERA, .231 opponent’s batting average and 1.06 WHIP across 22 starts this season, providing a rare bright spot in an otherwise dismal season for the Athletics.
Oakland has also been the superior offensive team at the plate since the All-Star break, outscoring the Marlins — who rank last in the MLB in run production during this stretch — by 30 runs. The Athletics also lead their opponent in OPS, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs in the second half, with their 34 long balls tying for the 10th-most in baseball.
Final Marlins-Athletics Prediction & Pick
For as good as Irvin has been for the bulk of 2022, it’s worth noting that August has been his worst month of the season by a fairly wide margin, posting a 4.50 ERA while allowing opponents to bat .250 against him. The last two starts have been really rough, getting rocked for 14 hits and 10 earned runs while only striking out three batters in 12 innings of work. In a matchup of two teams that haven’t done much to impress this year, the momentum of the starting pitchers could be the difference. Neither offense should be trusted to cover a -1.5 spread, even if Miami has done it the past two games, so the Marlins on the money line seems to be the play.
Final Marlins-Athletics Prediction & Pick: Marlins money line (-124)