The Miami Marlins have traveled to our nation’s capital for a weekend series against the Washington Nationals. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Marlins-Nationals prediction and pick, laid out below.
Miami has taken a nosedive since their 2020 playoff appearance, with their record currently sitting at 59-86, fourth place in the NL East, and officially eliminated from playoff contention. The team has struggled with injuries and inconsistency, dumping some veterans to get younger players playing time.
Washington has cratered since their 2019 World Series championship, and fans can only hope that this is their rock bottom. Washington’s 50-94 record is the worst in baseball and resulted in the trade of franchise icon Juan Soto at the trade deadline. This season may be the beginning of a painful rebuild.
Here are the Marlins-Nationals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Nationals Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+128)
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Trevor Rogers will be today’s starting pitcher for Miami. Rogers has taken a step back in 2022, with a 4-11 record and 5.35 ERA in 22 starts. The lefty has struck out 105 batters in 106 innings. Batters have hit an impressive .271 against Rogers, highlighted by a .305 batting average against Rogers’ fastball. The struggles have not discouraged the young lefty from throwing the fastball, as Rogers’ usage of the pitch checks in at 52.5 percent.
As expected given their record, Miami’s bullpen has been miserable, ranking 22nd with a 4.19 ERA and 517 strikeouts in 496 innings. Steven Okert has been a bright spot, with a 2.50 ERA and 61 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. Okert is a true slider monster, throwing over 60 percent sliders, and batters have managed a lowly .146 batting average with 49 strikeouts in 123 at-bats against the pitch. Dylan Floro has also provided solid relief, pitching to a 3.45 ERA in 44.1 innings, including a 1.13 ERA in his last seven appearances.
Miami’s offense has missed Jazz Chisholm, who has been out since June with a back injury. Chisholm may be back at some point this season, but it will not make much of a difference for a stagnant offense. Jorge Soler will officially miss the rest of the season, appearing in just 72 games with Miami. Jesus Aguilar was released despite leading the team with 15 home runs. Now, Jesus Sanchez is the only active Marlin with double-digit home runs, with 12 and 12 doubles. Brian Anderson has been better of late, with a .286 batting average in his last seven games, hitting two of his eight home runs in that span. Garrett Cooper leads the team with 30 doubles, adding eight home runs and a .259 batting average. Jon Berti leads all of baseball with 34 stolen bases. Miami ranks second in the league with 112 stolen bases.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington will send Erick Fedde to the mound in this one. Fedde has endured a rough season, going 6-10 with a 5.24 ERA in 110 innings. Almost nothing has gone right for the righty, with only 83 strikeouts and 54 walks on the season. Batters are hitting .274 against Fedde on the season. Washington’s bullpen has been decent, ranking 20th in the league in bullpen ERA. Carl Edwards has been the best option, with a 2.78 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 55 innings. Batters have hit just .152 against Edwards’ curveball. Kyle Finnegan has taken over closer duties with Tanner Rainey slated to miss the season. Finnegan has pitched to a 3.84 ERA with nine saves and 58 strikeouts in 58.2 innings.
Washington’s offense has been abysmal with the losses of Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Lane Thomas now leads the team with 15 home runs and a .252 batting average. Thomas has hit .295 with five home runs in his last 30 games. Nelson Cruz has hit 10 home runs and 16 doubles, leading the team with 49 walks. Rookie Joey Menses has impressed in his 38 games, hitting ten doubles and nine home runs, including an inside-the-park home run last night. Menses has slashed .323/.352/.561 in his limited time this season.
Switch-hitting catcher Keibert Ruiz is hitting .251 with seven home runs but was just placed on the injured list. Luke Voit has been solid since coming over from San Diego, hitting seven home runs with a .256 batting average in 35 games with his new club. Victor Robles leads the team with 14 stolen bases, providing great defense in center field as well. Washington’s .252 batting average is the tenth-best total in the league, while they rank in the bottom half of the league in most other offensive categories.
Final Marlins-Nationals Prediction & Pick
This should be a bit of a slugfest, and Miami has the likely advantage in terms of starting pitching.
Final Marlins-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Miami -1.5 (+128), over 8 (-106)