The New York Mets head to Southern California to begin a three-game series with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Mets-Padres prediction and pick.
The Mets split a four-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers and will continue their Southern California road trip by heading south down the 5 Freeway.
They trailed early in yesterday's game after allowing a two-run home run by Justin Turner. But they rallied to put four runs across eight innings to build a 4-2 lead going into the ninth. However, they allowed a solo home run to Will Smith and an RBI single by Eddy Alvarez to force extra innings. Then, JD Davis delivered with an RBI double to give the Mets the lead and the eventual win.
The Padres won three of four games in Milwaukee against the Brewers after losing all three games to the Cardinals to finish the road trip at 3-4. Now, they return home to face one of the best teams in the NL in what could be an early-season playoff preview.
The Padres took a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning yesterday when Kolton Wong blasted a two-run shot against them to tie it up. It was his second of the game and forced the game to go into extra innings. Then, Jake Cronenworth slammed a three-run bomb to put the finishing touches on the game, giving the Padres the extra-innings win.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mets-Padres odds:
MLB odds: Mets-Padres Odds
Mets: +1.5 (+168)
Padres: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
*Watch MLB Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets are firing on all cylinders right now. After starting slowly against the Dodgers, they took the final two games. Now, they face the Padres who are right up there with the Dodgers and have done this without Fernando Tatis.
The Mets will send Carlos Carrasco to the hill. Carrasco is 6-1 with a 3.63 ERA. He tossed five scoreless innings in his last start, allowing four scattered hits. However, Carrasco struck out five and also walked five. His control is shaky as he has allowed six walks through two games. Alternatively, Carrasco also has 12 strikeouts in two games. He has not gone six innings since May 10. Likewise, Carrasco is winning games despite not pitching particularly well. His offense has helped him in that category.
The Mets are the best team in the majors in batting average and on-base percentage. Additionally, the Mets are also second in runs scored and eighth in slugging percentage. New York finds ways to get runners across the plate and has done it in spades. Pete Alonso is one of their better players as he is batting .283 with 16 home runs and 54 RBIs with 35 runs scored. Also, Francisco Lindor has done well, as he is batting .259 with nine home runs, 45 RBIs, and 39 runs scored. Jeff McNeil has been a welcome surprise, batting .311 with three home runs and 26 RBIs with 26 runs scored.
The Mets beat the Dodgers due to a persistent offense and solid pitching. The first two games did not go well for them because they could not put up at least four runs. That seems to be the number for the Mets to succeed. The Mets will cover the spread if Carrasco can give them five quality innings and the offense can give them four or five runs.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres are playing well without their top star, and that speaks volumes. Their pitching has been solid, and that is despite the struggles of their biggest name.
Blake Snell is their biggest name and is 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA. He did not have a good debut season with the Padres and continues to struggle as he works his way back from an injury. Snell went six innings in his last start, allowing two earned runs on two hits with six strikeouts and two walks. Additionally, he has eight walks through three starts. Snell is looking for consistency and any of the old stuff that he used to have that enabled him to dominate so many hitters.
The Padres do not have much on offense without Tatis. They rank 21st in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, 15th in runs scored, 26th in home runs, and 28th in slugging percentage. Manny Machado is still a star, as he is hitting nine home runs with 32 RBIs. Likewise, Eric Hosmer is solid, hitting .296 with four home runs and 25 RBIs.
The Padres will cover the spread if Snell can give them a quality start and the offense can deliver five runs. They managed to accomplish that yesterday. However, doing it against the Mets will be a tall task.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick
It will be an interesting showdown. Coming into yesterday's game, the under had hit in 10 of the last 12 Padres games. They went over yesterday, which means the under may strike again. The Mets know how to play down to the competition. Take the under to win.
Final Mets-Padres Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (-105)
Follow Us
Subscribe
