The San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds will face off for the second game of a three-game series on Thursday night. The Padres won Wednesday’s shortened game with a grand slam from outfielder Trent Grisham in the fifth inning. The Reds were hanging tough with San Diego until the game had to be called because of the weather. Cincinnati will try to make up for that tough loss tonight in what should hopefully be a full nine innings of action. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Padres-Reds prediction and pick.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for tonight’s contest.
MLB Odds: Padres-Reds Odds
San Diego Padres ML (+107)
Cincinnati Reds ML (-117)
Over 9 1/2 (-113)
Under 9 1/2 (-107)
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Wednesday’s contest is a perfect example of why San Diego can win on any given day. They trailed throughout the early innings, with their starting pitcher struggling to find his footing. It all changed in the fifth inning when a grand slam from the aforementioned Grisham put the Padres up two. It seems like this team can come back from almost any deficit, especially when facing a team that has some issues pitching like the Reds.
Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo isn’t a bad pitcher, but he certainly isn’t the best. He owns a 5.14 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP on the season. Neither are great numbers, but even more encouraging for the Padres are Castillo’s weaknesses.
He struggles with his control, walking multiple batters in almost every single appearance he’s made this year. The Padres are one of the best teams in the MLB at drawing walks, so they should have plenty of baserunners throughout this one. Castillo is also prone to giving up home runs, something that’s never good when you’re playing a team nicknamed Slam Diego.
The Padres will send rookie Ryan Weathers to the mound on Thursday. Weathers has been great for a rookie, earning a 2.47 ERA to go along with a 1.01 WHIP. Besides his obvious skill, Weathers has another advantage in this one. The Reds struggle against left-handed pitching, earning worse stats across the board against southpaws. It’s not unreasonable to expect a solid start out of him.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
While starter Luis Castillo’s stats may look suspicious at first, there’s a great reason for optimism with him on the mound. He struggled early in the season, but Castillo has been fantastic in his last seven games. Over that span, he’s improved his ERA to 2.81 and his WHIP to 1.15. He also consistently works deep into games, masking the poor Cincinnati bullpen. This may just be a hot streak, but it looks like Castillo is finally hitting his stride.
The Reds’ lineup has some of the hottest hitters in baseball in it, and it helps that they’re playing in Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati is far better when playing at home, earning a huge jump in batting average, OBP, and OPS. They have significantly more home runs and RBIs at home than they do on the road despite the fact that they’ve played one more road game than at home.
Final Padres-Reds Prediction & Pick
With the lines looking like they do, I have to take the Padres. They are technically the underdog, but they have the pitching advantage as well as a better lineup. Honestly, San Diego should be favored in this game. This is a pretty straightforward pick.
FINAL PICK: San Diego Padres ML (+107)
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