The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will face off on Sunday Night Baseball at Citi Field in Queens, New York. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Phillies-Mets prediction and pick.

 

The Phillies defeated the Mets 4-1 on Saturday. It was a tie game until the fifth inning when the Mets struck first. Francisco Lindor drove Brandon Nimmo home on a fielder's choice and put the Mets up 1-0. The Phillies answered back in the seventh inning. Kyle Schwarber clobbered a two-run bomb to deep center field that put the Phillies up 2-1. It was his fifth home run in 2022. Then, Odubel Herrera delivered with an RBI double that extended the cushion to 3-1. Rhys Hoskins blasted a shot to deep left field for a solo home run. It was his second of the season.

Kyle Gibson allowed one run, zero earned, over 4 1/3 innings of work. However, the bullpen pitched masterfully, allowing two scattered hits over the final 4 2/3 innings. Corey Knebel retired the final four hitters for his fourth save of the season. The Mets left 13 runners on base as they could not capitalize on early walks.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Mets odds.

MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds

Phillies: +1.5 (-146)

Mets: -1.5 (+122)

Over: 6.5 (-128)

Under: 6.5 (+104)

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Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

Philadelphia has performed admirably in this series against New York. Now, the Phillies look to steal the three-game series from the Mets and leave New York with another win. Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Phillies on Sunday night.

Eflin is 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA. He delivered in his last start, allowing one earned run with two hits over six innings. Sunday, Eflin will look to replicate that effort as he takes on the Mets. He received 19 runs of support over the last two starts after his teammates gave him two combined over the first two games.

Bryce Harper is a hitter the Phillies could use to cover. However, he is batting .253 and has gone 1-for-10 over three games. Philadelphia needs his bat to spark a lineup that also includes Schwarber and Didi Gregorius. The Phillies rank eighth in batting average, 10th in on-base percentage, fourth in total runs, seventh in slugging percentage, and 10th in home runs.

The Phillies will cover the spread if Eflin can give them another quality start. He must contain the dangerous Mets lineup and gain command of his pitches. Additionally, the Philadelphia lineup needs to produce effectively. Schwarber, Harper, and Gregorius are the cogs that make the engine go in Philadelphia and will need to propel the Phillies to victory on Sunday night.

Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread

New York is 15-7 and has accomplished this feat with a mixture of solid hitting and spectacular pitching. The Mets have won games with grit and execution. Sunday, the Mets will go with Max Scherzer.

Scherzer is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and has done exactly what the Mets envisioned he would do when they signed him. He has maintained his elite status at the age of 37 and does not seem to be stopping any time soon. Scherzer allowed no earned runs on two hits over seven innings in his last start. He pitched seven innings in two consecutive starts. Scherzer has won three Cy Young Awards and is making a case for a fourth if he can build on his masterful start to the season. He has plenty of support from his offense.

The Mets rank second in batting average, 10th in on-base percentage, and sixth in runs scored. New York does not hit many home runs, but it does feast on opportunities and produce with runners in scoring position. Pete Alonso has maintained his excellence, as he has four home runs with 17 RBI. Also, Lindor is having a productive season, batting .282 with four home runs and 11 RBI. The Mets have found ways to produce runs and gnaw at opponents with solid at-bats.

The Mets will cover the spread if Scherzer continues his dominance. Additionally, New York's offense could tack on a few runs to cover.

Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick

Sunday Night Baseball will produce a spectacular match between division rivals. The Phillies find themselves with a major opportunity to gain ground as they are only four games behind the Mets for first place in the NL East. However, Scherzer always produces, and the Mets have covered the spread in all four of his starts in 2022. Expect the trend to continue on Sunday night. The Mets will win the game and cover.

Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets: -1.5 (+122)