The Philadelphia Phillies take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Phillies Mets prediction and pick.

 

Zack Wheeler goes to the mound for the Phillies, while Chris Bassitt takes the bump for the Mets.

Zack Wheeler has a 3.38 ERA. His ERA was 8.53 after two bad early-season starts in April. He gave up 11 runs in eight innings in those two appearances. He has since settled into a rhythm and chopped five runs off his ERA. He has given up only five runs in his last five starts, encompassing 32 2/3 innings. Three of his five outings have been shutouts. There is no question that Wheeler is capable of dominating when at his best, and that he will occasionally display that dominance. The Phillies need him to be at his best precisely because their bullpen is so wobbly. They need Wheeler to pitch into the seventh inning on a regular basis and reduce the strain on their pen when other Philadelphia starters pitch. Wheeler has to find a higher ceiling for this season to fulfill its potential in Philadelphia. He is a key part of the calculus when making a Phillies Mets prediction based on the current MLB odds.

Chris Bassitt has a 3.91 ERA. He had a 2.34 ERA after another strong start on May 14 against the Mariners. He gave up more than three runs in only one of his first seven starts, more than one run in only two of his first seven starts. However, in his last two appearances, Bassitt has been roughed up. He has pitched 10 2/3 innings in those starts and conceded 12 runs. He needs to get back on the beam in this game and reshape the dimensions of any Phillies Mets pick you might make.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Phillies-Mets MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Phillies-Mets Odds

Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+176)

New York Mets: +1.5 (-215)

Over: 7.5 (-105)

Under: 7.5 (-115)

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Why The Phillies Could Cover the Spread

The Phillies have been hammered in the first two games of this series. The Mets have a massive lead in the National League East and show signs of being able to run away and hide in the division race. Placed in this context, the Phillies are desperate for a win and will take the field knowing they must deliver a strong performance. They have Zack Wheeler, their best starting pitcher, on the mound against a good-but-not-spectacular opposing starter who is not named Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom, who are both injured. This game lines up really well for Philadelphia, which is part of the backdrop to any attempt to make a Phillies Mets pick based on the current Phillies Mets odds.

Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread

This is simply an elite team. The Mets are getting great production from so many players right now. The key to their success is that it is not powered by one player in particular. The collective is what’s working so well for this team. A different player steps up every night, sometimes two or three. One player isn’t being asked to shoulder the burden. Yes, Francisco Lindor is playing like the superstar he is, but several other Mets, notably Jeff McNeil, are having terrific seasons as well. This balance and depth gives the Mets an advantage over nearly every other team in baseball, the Dodgers being one likely (but not yet proven) exception. This is part of the landscape one must account for when making a Phillies Mets pick.

Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick

This is another stay-away game, since the Mets have the better team but the Phillies are in a near must-win situation and have Wheeler on the hill. It simply isn’t a comfortable betting situation. If you have to pick a side, the Phillies with Wheeler seems the better choice.

Final Phillies-Mets Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5