It's Opening Day as the Boston Red Sox head to Yankee Stadium in the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Yankees prediction and pick.
The Red Sox went 92-70 in 2021, finishing in a second-place tie with the Yankees but won the spot based on head-to-head rankings. Then, they defeated their rivals in a Wildcard game at Fenway Park, eliminating New York from the playoffs. Following, the Sox shocked the Tampa Bay Rays, beating them three games to one. Ultimately, they lost to the Houston Astros in the ALCS four games to two. Now, Boston hopes to avoid a letdown and make it back to the playoffs. Rafael Devers returns having hit 38 home runs and 113 RBIs in 2021. Additionally, J.D. Martinez clubbed 28 home runs and 99 RBIs and hopes to repeat the feat. In addition to hitting, the Red Sox brought back Nathan Eovaldi, who went 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA in 32 games started. Ace Chris Sale will start the season on the IL.
The Yankees went 92-70 in 2021, losing out to second place to the Red Sox due to a tie-breaker. Thus, they played the Red Sox in a Wildcard game at Fenway, where the Red Sox defeated them, eliminating them from the playoffs. The Yanks ranked 19th in runs scored and 28th in runners in scoring position. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can change that. The Yankees were 9-1 in games in which both batters hit home runs last season. Judge and Stanton must revive the Yankees offense. Meanwhile, Gerrit Cole returns as the ace for the Yanks. Cole struck out 243 batters last season, the second-most in a single season by a Yankee pitcher. Aroldis Chapman anchors a spectacular bullpen that might be without setup star Zach Britton, who had elbow surgery a few months ago.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Red Sox-Yankees MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Yankees Odds
Red Sox: +1.5 (-142)
Yankees: -1.5 (+118)
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
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Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston eliminated New York last season, and they did it by getting to Cole. They scored two runs early on Cole when Xander Bogaerts hit a two-run home run to give the Sox the early lead. The Yanks pulled Cole in the third inning, and the Sox never looked back. Counting the playoffs, Cole went 2-3 against the Red Sox last season. Making contact off his pitches will be imminent if Boston is to have any chance.
Also, Boston needs Eovaldi to excel. He was the winning pitcher in that playoff game, holding New York to one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. Including playoffs, Eovaldi went 3-2 against the Yankees last season. In all three wins, he gave up one earned run. To win this game, Eovaldi will need to deliver a similar performance. Similarly, Eovaldi and the Boston bullpen must avoid walking New York hitters. The Yankees were the best in the majors in walks last season. Significantly, Boston must be careful against Judge and Stanton. They must avoid throwing hittable pitches, especially at a park like Yankee Stadium.
Therefore, the Red Sox will cover the spread if they strike often against Cole, Eovaldi performs adequately, limit mistakes, and contain Stanton and Judge. The crowd at Yankee Stadium will be electric, so accomplishing these tasks could take them out of the game early.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
New York has an ace up its sleeve. Cole did win two games against the Red Sox last season in five attempts. However, he mesmerized in one start, allowing one run in six innings in a July 17, 2021 victory at Yankee Stadium. Additionally, he recovered from an early blip to power the Yanks to victory. Also, the Yankees have dominated the series against the Red Sox while at Yankee Stadium. New York is 32-14 over 46 previous games against Boston.
Patience will be key for the Yanks. New York was the top team in walks and will have to work the count to get to Eovaldi. By doing this, it will allow Judge, Stanton, and the rest of the Bronx Bombers to shine. They got to Eovaldi in a September 24, 2021 victory last season. He allowed seven runs on 2 2/3 innings of work in that game. New York will need to repeat the formula to take that game.
The Yankees will cover the spread if Cole dominates, their hitters are patient, and they strike Eovaldi early. The feverish crowd at Yankee Stadium will give them the energy to build on that.
Final Red Sox-Yankees Prediction & Pick
It is one of the most exciting rivalries in sports. The Red Sox will take on the team they eliminated. Meanwhile, the Yankees will look to enact revenge against a hated rival. Cole is the measuring stick here. He also wants to avenge that loss. Thus, the home field and the revenge factor favor the Yankees. New York wins and covers the spread, sending their fans home happy.
Final Red Sox-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+118)
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