The Detroit Tigers take on the Houston Astros. Check out our MLB odds series for our Tigers Astros prediction and pick.
The pitching matchup for this game is Tarik Skubal for Detroit versus Jose Urquidy of Houston.
As you think about a Tigers Astros prediction, know that these two pitchers are similar despite the three-run difference in ERAs. Skubal has a 3.05 ERA while Urquidy checks in with a 5.95 ERA. The difference comes down to one thing: A Skubal start with six runs allowed involved only three earned runs allowed. If all six of those runs had been earned, the ERAs would be a lot closer. All in all, the two starters have had similar seasons.
If you look at Skubal's and Urquidy's four starts apiece in 2022, they have both had two strong starts and two poor ones. Skubal struggled against the White Sox and Twins, but he thrived against the Royals and Rockies. Urquidy had two starts against the Blue Jays. One went smoothly while the other did not. He pitched well against the Angels and poorly against the Mariners. There is not a big difference between these two pitchers, no matter what the numbers might suggest.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Tigers-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Tigers-Astros Odds
Tigers: +1.5 (-154)
Astros: -1.5 (+128)
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
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Why The Tigers Could Cover the Spread
The Astros have been a weird team this season, and part of their struggles through 25 games can be assigned to Jose Altuve being injured for a number of games and having to go through rehab assignments. He suffered yet another injury on Wednesday against the Mariners in what has been a hard-luck season. Houston is just 14-11 and was .500 before sweeping Seattle earlier this week. The Astros' offense has found it difficult to get going. The big bats on a loaded team have been inconsistent. One wonders if the loss of Carlos Correa, now on the Minnesota Twins, has been more important than some analysts realized. This is part of the context surrounding a Tigers Astros prediction.
When you think about the Tigers Astros odds, also realize that Jose Urquidy is a back-end starter and not the rock of Gibraltar that Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez are at the top of the Houston rotation. If there is a time to pounce on the Astros, it is when Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi are pitching.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
When you think about a Tigers Astros pick, don't overcomplicate things. Houston has struggled, but the Astros are still the defending American League champions. Kyle Tucker has started to hit better in recent weeks. Houston just did sweep the Seattle Mariners to restore order. Those are important details.
Tarik Skubal shows promise as a big-league pitcher, but the Tigers' starter is not a proven shutdown ace. He has been inconsistent and figures to struggle against the Astros' bats. Also keep in mind that Detroit had a long road trip which concluded in Sunday in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. The Tigers flew home for a short two-game set against the Pirates, and now has to fly to Houston for a Thursday game right after a doubleheader on Wednesday. The Tigers are likely going to be tired in this game. It's certainly not a spot which sets up well for them.
Final Tigers-Astros Prediction & Pick
The Tigers' fatigue and heavy travel schedule line up well for Houston. The Astros should not get the Tigers' best performance. That's more than enough to recommend a Houston pick against the spread, not just a moneyline bet.
Final Tigers-Astros Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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