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An intriguing inter-league duel is on tap as the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins take a trip out west to take on the playoff-worthy San Diego Padres. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Twins-Padres prediction and pick will be revealed.
The start of a three-game set will be a sight for sore eyes for the Minnesota Twins as they are fresh off of dropping a pair of contests to the Brewers. Despite this, the Twins still sit atop their division with a record of 52-46. Minnesota will plan on sending out righty Joe Ryan who is 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA thus far in 2022.
As for San Diego, the Padres are coming off of a three-game series against the Tigers in which they fell short in two of them. Most recently, the Friars were bested by Detroit 4-3 on Wednesday. With the day off on Thursday, the Padres are eager to return to form with lefty Blake Snell in line for the start. On the season, Snell is 2-5 with a 4.75 ERA in his eleven starts.
Here are the Twins-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Padres Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-210)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+172)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Although the Twins may not be playing their best baseball at the moment, they are more than capable of giving the Padres a run for their money in this primetime matchup. In fact, if Minnesota doesn’t, they will be in danger of squandering their division lead which currently sits at two games.
Nevertheless, the Twins need to get back to their roots. These such roots that have been established from the get-go of the season have been the Twins’ ability to rip the cover off of the baseball. In their 98 games played on the season, Minnesota has compiled the seventh-best batting average in the league while remaining sixth in the majors in both on-base and slugging percentage. To make a long story short, this is a very productive group that can make pitchers pay the price when they make a mistake.
Additionally, this Twins pitching staff is also nothing to scoff at. While their overall numbers may not suggest that they are an elite unit, Minnesota still is capable of making noise from the bump. In fact, Twins pitching has only allowed hitters to slash .240, which is the 13th best mark in the game.
Fortunately, this game may come down to Joe Ryan who has been nearly un-hittable in his 2022 pitching campaign. While Ryan has never squared off with the Padres, he is coming off a stellar start against a formidable Mets lineup in which he tossed five shutout innings while striking out a handful of batters.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Don’t look now Padres fans, but Fernando Tatis Jr’s return has almost arrived. Slated for an August 5th return from a broken wrist, Tatis Jr’s return will be an absolute blessing to an offense that could use an extra kick to their dynamic ways. At the near conclusion of July, San Diego has still managed to muster up 432 runs, which currently ranks as the 15th best mark in the majors. It also helps to have a player of the utmost caliber like third-baseman Manny Machado. Having a tremendous year at the plate, Machado may single handily cover the spread for the Friars with his team-leading .299 average, 16 home runs, and 54 RBIs.
Yes, the offense has been good enough to be respected by opposing pitchers, but the biggest reason why the Padres sit at 55-45 has been because of their collective effort from the mound. Without a doubt, San Diego’s greatest asset on the roster has come from the starting rotation. Even though the Friars are 3-3 since the All-Star Break, they have collected three quality starts since then, pushing the total of pitchers reaching at least six innings tossed to 53, the second-most in all of baseball. Not to mention, San Diego has also dialed up a team ERA of 3.78.
Unfortunately, lefty Blake Snell has been that rare exception of pitching up to that standard. To make matters worse, Snell has struggled against the Twins throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 7.15 ERA in five starts. The good news? Snell has been his old self over his previous four starts. In those appearances, the 29-year-old from Seattle has a 3.20 ERA to go along with 33 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings.
Final Twins-Padres Prediction & Pick
There is a reason why this game is one of the premier matchups of the day. With both sides eager to bolster their playoff resume by adding victories to the win column, who will provide his squad with a standout performance? Expect the Padres to come out determined, but to ultimately fall short against Joe Ryan’s dominance. Minnesota prevails in a big-time spread cover.
Final Twins-Padres Prediction & Pick: Twins +1.5 (-210)