The New York Yankees and Milwaukee Brewers will begin a three-game weekend series in Milwaukee on Friday night. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Yankees-Brewers prediction and pick, laid out below.
New York is in first place in the AL East with an 87-56 record, winning four in a row, holding a six-and-a-half game lead over Toronto in the division. Despite a horrid summer, New York has had a stronghold on the top spot in the division. While the fanbase has clamored for the firing of both Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman, the team is preparing for yet another postseason appearance.
Milwaukee is in a dogfight for the final NL Wild Card spot, sitting a game and a half behind San Diego. Overall, Milwaukee has gone 76-67, second place in the NL Central, seven and a half games behind St. Louis for the division crown. Milwaukee has gone 6-4 in their last ten games.
Here are the Yankees-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Brewers Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+125)
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-150)
Over: 8 (-112)
Under: 8 (-108)
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
Frankie Montas will take the ball for New York in this one. Montas was the team's big trade deadline pickup, and has largely been a flop in his seven starts. Montas has pitched to a 5.94 ERA in 36.1 innings with the club, inflated by four bad starts. In his three good starts, Montas has surrendered four earned runs in 15.2 innings. Montas' splitter has been his best pitch this season, which he throws roughly 25 percent of the time. Batters have managed a brutal .181 batting average against the pitch, striking out 60 times in 160 at-bats. Montas has forced batters to chase at a 33.4 percent clip, which ranks in the 89th percentile, and would be a career high for Montas. New York's bullpen has been one of the best groups in the league, ranking second in the league with a 2.94 ERA. Closer Clay Holmes has been up and down lately, but still has an ERA of 2.47 with 20 saves in 57 appearances. Batters are hitting just .205 against Holmes' sinker, which he throws over 80 percent of the time. Wandy Peralta has been the most consistent and reliable option for Boone, with a 2.41 ERA in his 54 appearances. Opponents are hitting just .197 against Peralta.
As we have said all season, Aaron Judge is the heart of the Yankees' offense. The hulking slugger has belted 57 home runs and 123 RBI, slashing .310/.413/.688, all of which lead the team. Judge has also hit 23 doubles and stolen 16 bases. As almost any New York-area sports radio show will tell you, Judge is having one of the best all-time seasons offensively. Giancarlo Stanton has slumped a bit in his return from an Achilles injury, but still has hit 26 home runs. Anthony Rizzo is on the mend, and the team sorely misses his 30 home runs. Gleyber Torres has hit 21 home runs and 23 doubles, hitting .290 in his last seven games. As a team, New York leads the league with 224 home runs.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Adrian Houser is tonight's starting pitcher for Milwaukee, bringing a 6-9 record with a 4.61 ERA in 19 appearances (18 starts). Houser is a reliable innings-eater for the club, but no one will mistake him for one of the aces of the rotation. Houser has a devastating slider, which has held batters to a .140 batting average against the offering. Milwaukee's bullpen has been okay, ranking 16th with a 3.94 ERA on the season, striking out 550 in 512 innings. The team traded Josh Hader at the deadline, and considering his struggles in San Diego, they might have been on to something there. Devin Williams has taken over the closing duties, with a 1.82 ERA and 12 saves in 59 appearances. Williams has struck out 82 batters in 54.1 innings, thanks in large part to his disappearing changeup. Batters have hit just .186 against Williams' changeup, striking out in 45 of 113 at-bats.
Milwaukee ranks third in the league with 197 home runs. Rowdy Tellez has belted 30 home runs to lead the team, hitting 23 doubles and walking 56 times. Willy Adames leads the team with 85 RBI and 26 doubles, ranking second with 28 home runs. Hunter Renfroe is the third Brewer to hit over 20 home runs, hitting 25 and adding 20 doubles. Christian Yelich leads the team with a .260 batting average and 16 stolen bases, adding 12 home runs and 22 doubles. Despite a bit of a power outage for Yelich, he leads the team with 75 walks, good for a .360 on-base percentage.
Final Yankees-Brewers Prediction & Pick
Look for Montas to bounce back and lead the Yankees to a fifth straight victory.
Final Yankees-Brewers Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (+125), over 8 (-112)