The San Diego Padres kick off an important series against the Colorado Rockies on Friday. If Mike Shildt can guide his team to a sweep, the Padres could re-take the National League West lead. Despite its success, San Diego's success lies on the shoulders of Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish. If they cannot keep up with Michael King and Nick Pivetta, the team's path is much more difficult.
Throughout the regular season, the Padres' offense has not been the issue. Despite injuries to Jackson Merrill and other key contributors this year, San Diego remains a dominant team at the plate. The real questions lie in the team's starting rotation. As it stands right now, Shildt's playoff rotation(if healthy) is King, Pivetta, Cease, and Darvish. Is that enough to get over the hump?
The Padres got as close as anyone to knocking out the Los Angeles Dodgers in a playoff series last year. However, they got that close with Joe Musgrove leading the rotation. With his ace out for the season, Shildt turned to other options in San Diego to pick up the slack. Luckily for him, Pivetta stepped up and is putting the finishing touches on an All-Star caliber season on the mound.
The Padres will go as far as their pitching takes them. King's newest injury is cause for concern, but he should be back before the postseason. Assuming he is at full strength by that point, the spotlight shifts to the third and fourth pitchers in the rotation. Cease and Darvish have both been inconsistent all season.
Shildt has his work cut out for him as the season winds down. If he can't get consistent pitching from his entire playoff rotation, the team's chances don't look good.
How could Cease and Darvish sink the Padres in the playoffs?
The Padres seem destined for a date in the National League Wild Card Series, whether they win their division or not. San Diego and Los Angeles trail behind three teams in the NL ahead of Thursday's action. The Dodgers are focused on holding the Padres off, but both teams are in the heart of the NL playoff picture. That means a three-game playoff series to kick things off.
San Diego's playoff rotation should go four deep. Shildt has faith in King and Pivetta at the top. Both would have been All-Stars had they were healthy throughout the season. However, the supporting staff behind them leaves a lot to be desired. That starts with Cease and Darvish, both of whom are veterans with very little to offer on the mound other than their resumes.
Cease has 190 strikeouts this season, good for fifth in Major League Baseball before Thursday's action. However, he has rarely put together great starts this season. Darvish has the same issue, something that could haunt San Diego in the opening round of the playoffs. Postseason offenses jump on shaky pitching, no matter how much cache the starter enters the game with.
How can Mike Shildt fix San Diego's issue this season?
Cease and Darvish might not overcome their consistency problems before the postseason kicks off. And that is ok. Shildt's roster gives him enough flexibility to recover if either one of them blows up in a potential playoff start. The Padres brought in Jeffrey Springs at the trade deadline, a veteran starter who brings depth to the rotation behind San Diego's top-tier talent.
Additionally, the Padres brought in Nestor Cortes, who won't be a part of the playoff rotation when the time comes. Shildt could pair each of his new veterans with Darvish and Cease, forming a duo that can maintain the quality of San Diego's pitching. The Dodgers could make a similar move with Shohei Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw, which could turn a loss into a win when it counts.
The Padres were active at the trade deadline. San Diego's trade for Mason Miller stole the show, but Shildt got multiple weapons for his pitching staff. He has options when it comes time to improvise in a postseason series where King and Pivetta struggle in their starts. A lot of pressure is on him to guide his team on a deep playoff run and press all of the right buttons.
Darvish is ready for what could be a bloody finish with the Dodgers this season. He and Cease are motivated to cruise into the playoffs with momentum if they can build it in their final few starts of the year. However, Shildt needs to have backup plans in place in case either of them cannot get on track by the time their number is called in the playoffs.
