The Milwaukee Bucks travel back to Arizona looking to get the first road victory of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night. It’s time to continue our NBA Finals odds series and make a Bucks-Suns Game 5 prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold an overall record of 14-7 in the postseason and are 12-9 against the spread. Milwaukee is 5-6 on the road this postseason and have dropped their last two road games.
The Suns stand at 14-6 overall and 13-7 against the spread in the postseason. Phoenix is 8-2 in their home arena in their playoff run and have won four out of their last five games in Talking Stick Resort Arena.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Bucks-Suns Game 5 odds.
NBA Finals Odds: Bucks-Suns Game 5 Odds
Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -3.5 (-110)
Over 218 Points (-110)
Under 218 Points (-110)
*Watch Game 5 of the NBA Finals LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
After going down 0-2 to the Suns, many pundits left the Bucks for dead. Instead, they have turned the series around with two emphatic wins on their home floor.
So how have the Bucks injected new life in to the Finals? With some excellent perimeter defense and the re-emergence of their role players.
The most important factor in Milwaukee's success is the play of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday.
Middleton's numbers jumped from 40.0% shooting and 20.0 points per game in the first two games of the Finals to 44.9% shooting and 29.0 points per game in Games 3 and 4. Holiday saw a similar jump, going from 31.4% shooting and 13.5 points to 35.3% shooting and 17.0 points in the last two.
These might seem like small jumps, but they make all the difference for Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the Bucks front-runner for Finals MVP, and he should be. But the Bucks don't win games if Middleton and Holiday are not effective in their roles. This applies to Middleton especially.
In the postseason, the Bucks are 13-1 when Middleton shoots better than 40% from the field. They are only 1-6 when he dips below that number. Now that it looks like he has his groove back, the Suns could be in trouble.
On the defensive end, Milwaukee has shut down the Suns perimeter scoring. After allowing the Suns to shoot 41.8% from three in the first two games of the series and allowing 33 makes, they held Phoenix to only 16 threes in Games 3 and 4 on 29.6% shooting.
While both numbers are on the opposite end of extremes, the mean is more likely to trend closer to how the latter games turned out. The Bucks have held opponents to 34.8% shooting from deep this postseason, and the Suns have shot 37.2% from beyond the arc. Phoenix should shoot closer to 35% or 36% in Game 5, and that might not be enough to put them over the edge against a Bucks team that has all momentum.
Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread
After failing to take a game in Milwaukee, the Suns return home to attempt to do what they have done best this postseason: win on their home floor.
Phoenix has been virtually unbeatable in their home arena, winning four of their last five in Arizona. Their two losses in Talking Stick Resort have come via a Paul George 41 point game in the Western Conference Finals and a fully healthy Lakers squad in Game 2 of the first round.
It takes both an otherworldly game from a super star and a strong effort from the supporting cast to win in Phoenix. If you get just one, a Suns win is nearly inevitable. Just look at Giannis' Game 2 performance for proof.
In both their losses in the series, the Suns have lost control of the interior and either lost the three-point battle or shot so poorly it had little effect on the game. The odds that this happens in a third straight game are low.
Phoenix has been nearly 6.0% better from beyond the arc in the postseason than the Bucks, shooting 37.6% from deep against the Bucks 31.8%. They've also held opponents to only 43.3% shooting from the floor in the playoffs, the most effective number of any team that qualified to make the postseason.
We should see a return to mean in Game 5 in both areas for Phoenix. Chris Paul is too good of a shooter to shoot below 40% in back to back games. In the entire regular season and the postseason, he's only shot below 40% in two games in a row twice all season.
With Devin Booker in form and the Suns shooters getting some backing from the crowd, Phoenix should easily top 103 points in Game 5, which was their best total in Milwaukee.
Final Bucks-Suns Game 5 Prediction & Pick
Overall, the Bucks biggest advantage has come from their role players stepping up. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, everyone but Giannis has underperformed on the road this postseason, as documented in my Game 4 pick. This trend is likely to continue in front of a Suns home crowd that has been one of the best in the playoffs so far. Expect Chris Paul to bounce back in Game 5, and the Suns to pull out a victory and cover at home to push the Bucks to the brink.
FINAL BUCKS-SUNS GAME 5 PREDICTION: PHX 111, MIL 103 (PHOENIX SUNS -3.5)
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