It is time for the NBA Playoffs… in a way. It is the play-in tournament with the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Hawks-Heat prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
As NBA stars such as Dwayne Wade and LeBron James sent their well-wishes for Udonis Haslem before his final regular season game, Haslem and the Heat still have basketball to play. The winner of this game will get the Boston Celtics in the first round, coming in as the seven seed. Atlanta has been here before. In 2022 the Atlanta Hawks were the nine-seed in the Eastern Conference but proceeded to beat Charlotte and Atlanta to grab the eight-seed in the playoffs. There, they faced the Miami Heat, who took them out in five games. The season is not over for the loser, but the loser of this game is just 1-3 all-time in the second game.
Here are the Hawks-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Hawks-Heat Odds
Atlanta Hawks: +5 (-110)
Miami Heat: -5 (-110)
Over: 227 (-110)
Under: 227 (-110)
How To Watch Hawks vs. Heat
TV: TNT
Stream: NBATV
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Hawks Could Cover The Spread
Atlanta has been here before, and come away with making it into the actual playoffs. Atlanta is led by Trae Young, who finished his season by putting on a show. In his last game, he became the first player since John Stockton to have 27 points, 20 assists, and four steals in a game. He missed the final game of the regular season due to right groin soreness but should be expected to play against the Heat for a chance to move on.
On the season, Young averaged 26.2 points per game, with three rebounds and 10.2 assists to lead the team. The Heat has given him some trouble in his career though. He averages just 21.4 points per game against the Heat, with a shooting percentage of 40.2%. His assists drop to 8.3 per game against the Heat, second worst against any team he has played ten or more times.
Beyond Young, the Hawks will rely on Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray. Capela is mainly for rebounding, as he averaged 11 rebounds per game on the season, including four offensive rebounds per game. His 11 rebounds per game rank him seventh in the NBA, but he is second in the NBA in defensive rebounds. Murray is the secondary scorer on the team, averaging 20.5 points per game, but also picking up 6.1 assists per game to aid Trae Young.
The team as a whole has been average on the season. They finished the year with a 41-41 record. Their longest winning streak was five games, and their longest losing streak was four games. They were never more than three games over .500, but also never more than three games under .500. They are third in the NBA in points per game, but 26th in the NBA in points given up per game. This led to a point differential of just .2 points per game, which was the 18th of the year. For the Hawks, it just depends on if they get enough production against a good Heat defense to come away with the win.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Haslem and the Heat are hoping there is going to be a misprint on Haslem's brand-new rocking chair. They only put three NBA championships on the chair, and if they win this game, they will have a chance for a fourth.
To do that, the Heat will be relying on their defense. They are second in the NBA giving up just 109.8 points per game. Much of this is due to how they control the pace of play and created turnovers. Opponents still shoot 48.2% against them, which is 22nd in the NBA. Meanwhile, opponents only get to attempt 83.2 field goals per game, which is second in the NBA. They do not foul and give up free points, as they are third in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Furthermore, opponents turnover the ball 15.0 times per game against them, third in the NBA. Combined, this leads to a solid defense that allows capitalizing on opponent mistakes.
The team needs some work on offense though, as they are last in the NBA in points per game. They do not shoot well, sitting at just 46.0% on the season, which is 26th in the NBA. The Heat also struggle from three, only shooting 34.3%. They will need to change that in a hurry as nine of the last ten NBA champions have been a top ten three-point shooting team in the regular season.
To help lead this offense, Jimmy Butler will need to continue his great work since the All-Star break. In March, Butler averaged 26.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 6.1 rebounds to help lead the Heat. The 26.1 points are 3.2 points over his season-long average.
Beyond Butler, if experienced coaching is important, the Heat have that as well. Erik Spoelstra just won his 700th career game and is currently eighth in NBA history with 96 career playoff wins. If the Heat wins this game and can pull an upset in the first round of the playoffs, Spoelstra will tie Larry Brown for 5th all-time in playoff wins.
Final Hawks-Heat Prediction & Pick
This is a strength versus strength match-up with the Atlanta offense and Heat defense. In the four games that set up a seven versus eight match-up in the play-in tournament, all four games have been won by the seven seed. In the Eastern Conference, both seven seeds won their game by seven or more points. The Heat is a more consistent team and Butler is playing great. They continue the trend and get the win over the Hawks.
Final Hawks-Heat Prediction & Pick: Heat -5 (-110)
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