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The Dallas Mavericks (1-2) visit the Brooklyn Nets (1-3) in an inter-conference matchup on Thursday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Nets prediction and pick.
The Mavericks are 1-2 fresh off a tight loss to the Pelicans. Dallas is 1-2 against the spread (ATS) after covering 61% of games last season. Two of Dallas' three games have gone over this season – a flip from last year when 60% of their matchups went under.
The Nets sit at 1-3 following a second-half collapse to Milwaukee on Wednesday night. Brooklyn is 1-3 ATS despite covering in 52% of games last season. Two of Brooklyn's four games have gone over – mirroring last season's 49% over rate.
The two teams split the season series last year with each team winning the away matchup. Brooklyn won by three, while Dallas won by two. Both matchups went under tonight's 225.5-point total.
Here are the Mavericks-Nets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Nets Odds
Dallas Mavericks: -2.5 (-112)
Brooklyn Nets: +2.5 (-108)
Over: 225.5 (-110)
Under: 225.5 (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks have won just one of their first three games despite possessing the league's ninth-highest-scoring offense and fifth-stingiest-scoring defense. Head coach Jason Kidd deserves a lot of credit for the defense. Dallas doesn't have a true “lockdown” defender but plays sound team defense. They're particularly skilled at defending without fouling and limiting their opponents' looks from the outside. The Mavs allow the fifth-fewest free throw attempts per game and the fewest threes attempted in the league. While they haven't had to defend isolation players of Brooklyn's caliber, their proficiency on the defensive side of the ball is something to keep in mind when making a Mavericks-Nets prediction.
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Offensively, the Mavericks live and die by star Luka Doncic. The preseason betting favorite to win MVP, Doncic has been as advertised through a week of the regular season. Luka leads the team in points (34.7) and assists (7.7) per game. He holds that high scoring average while still shooting 50% from the field. He hasn't shot particularly well from three this year (25%) but has shot at least 35% from beyond the arc the last two years. Brooklyn doesn't have anyone who can guard Luka one-on-one. They're going to be forced to send extra defenders to help contain Doncic – a perfect recipe for a Dallas cover. The Nets have been terrorized by stars all season long. They allowed 28 to Brandon Ingram, 37 to Pascal Siakam, 38 to Ja Morant, and, most recently, 43 to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Perhaps the biggest advantage Dallas has in this game comes in the rebounding department. Dallas has the highest rebounding differential in the league (+11) whereas Brooklyn has the worst (-10). Luka paces the team in rebounding (as he does for every other statistic) with nine per game. This is similar to last season however the addition of center Christian Wood has been a game-changer in this aspect. Wood has averaged 8.7 rebounds per game thus far despite playing just 26 minutes per game. Kidd has brought Wood into the rotation slowly but even three games into the year it's become clear he's Dallas' second-best player. In addition to his rebounding, Wood is the team's second-leading scorer (24.3 PPG) and is a perfect fit next to Luka thanks to his size (6'11”) and perimeter shooting (62% from three on 4.3 attempts per game).
Why The Nets Could Cover The Spread
The Nets seemed well on their way to securing a huge victory in Milwaukee over the Bucks before they collapsed in the second half. It wasn't so much that Brooklyn lost, but rather how they did so. Giannis went nuclear on them. The Nets' defense could do little to stop him – a common theme this year. The Nets have allowed the 6th most points in the league thus far and are among the worst in opponent field goal percentage and three-point percentage. Why, then, could the Nets cover tonight? Well, they have two of the best scorers in the league.
Although Brooklyn has a below-average offense as a whole, the combination of forward Kevin Durant and guard Kyrie Irving gives them a one-two punch few can match. Durant averages 32 PPG on 52% shooting. He gets to the free throw line a lot (10.3 attempts per game) and makes them at a proficient clip (88%). Irving is not far behind him. Kyrie averages 27 PPG on 46% shooting. Both players have struggled from beyond the arc this year (32% for Durant and 22% from Irving) but the career 38% and 39% three-point shooters should see their numbers climb as the season progresses. While the Nets don't get much help beyond these two (only center Nic Claxton averages more than 10 PPG) if they're on Brooklyn is a tough team to beat.
Final Mavericks-Nets Prediction & Pick
Brooklyn is coming off a brutal loss and will be playing for the second consecutive night. It wouldn't shock me to see them bounce back but given their age and play thus far, I'm riding with the Mavericks tonight.
Final Mavericks-Nets Prediction & Pick: Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-112)
