The Dallas Mavericks will take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in a crucial Western Conference battle. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Timberwolves prediction and pick.
This game is huge for both of these teams. The Mavericks are currently 45-28, a record that has them tied for the fourth seed in the West. Dallas would obviously love to grab home-court advantage throughout the first round of the postseason, making that fourth seed all that much more important.
The Timberwolves have a chance to improve their seeding as well, as a win in this game would bring them within a half-game of the sixth seed. With so much riding on this game, expect both sides to leave it out on the court in what should be an exciting matchup.
Here are the Mavericks-Timberwolves NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Timberwolves Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +3.5 (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 228 (-112)
Under: 228 (-108)
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Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
The Mavericks have been elite on defense this season. Dallas only gives up 104 points per game while holding their opponents to some of the lowest shooting percentages in the league, including a 33% shooting percentage from 3-land. That stat is particularly important here, as the Timberwolves shoot the most 3-pointers per game in the NBA. Another key defensive stat here is that the Mavericks hold their opponents to an average of 85 shots per game, one of the lowest numbers in the league. Minnesota relies on a ton of possessions to get their fast-paced offense going, but Dallas should be up to the task of slowing them down.
These teams have already played each other three times, with the Mavericks winning two of those matchups. In one of Dallas' victories and the lone defeat against the Timberwolves, they were without superstar guard Luka Doncic. Despite playing without Doncic, the Mavs were able to win one game and only lose the other by six points. Now Dallas is fully healthy and playing for seeding. A cover or a win is certainly possible here, as it always is when you have Doncic in the lineup.
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
While Dallas' defense does match up well with Minnesota in some areas, the Timberwolves should still have success on the offensive end. Head coach Chris Finch's squad has been deadly in transition throughout the season, averaging 15 fast-break points per game. The Mavericks haven't been great at stopping fast breaks, as they allow 12 points in transition per game. The Wolves also shoot the sixth-most free throws per game, a stat that should come in handy against a Dallas team that gives opponents nearly 21 free throws per game. Expect Minnesota to succeed to some degree offensively here.
Home-court advantage will play a huge part in this game. Minnesota is a fantastic 24-13 at home, with a 20-15-2 record against the spread. The Timberwolves are also 6-1 in their last seven games at home. Dallas is only 20-16 on the road, a far worse mark than its 25-12 home record. It's clear that the Target Center will give the Timberwolves a big advantage in this one.
Final Mavericks-Timberwolves Prediction & Pick
This game will be a close one. Because of that, the Mavericks are the best pick on the board. There's a good chance they will win this game outright, so giving them three points on the spread makes them a must-pick.
Final Mavericks-Timberwolves Pick: Dallas Mavericks: +3.5 (-110)
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